AXL  American Axle & Manufacturing...

Exchange

NYSE

Sector

Capital Goods

Industry

Auto Parts:O.E.M.

Market Cap.

1.69B

Vuru Grade

39.50/100

Current Price

$15.23
+0.01 (+0.07%)

Growth Price

$21.96
Undervalued by 44.16%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 4.66
  • P/S 0.42
  • P/B 1.84
  • EPS 3.27
  • Cash ROIC 0.44%
  • Cash Ratio 0.74
  • Dividend 0.00 / 0.00 %
  • Avg. Vol. 1.49M
  • Shares 76.90M
  • Market Cap. 1.69B

Company Description

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, engineering, design, and validation of driveline and drivetrain systems, and related components and chassis modules for automotive industry in the United States. The company's driveline and drivetrain systems comprise components that transfer power from the transmission and deliver it to the d... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (AXL) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call ...
Seeking Alpha - May 5, 2017
Jason P. Parsons - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. Thank you, Lisa, and good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome everyone who's joining us on AAM's first quarter of 2017 earnings call.
American Axle (AXL) Q1 Earnings Top, Revenues Miss Estimates - Zacks.com
American Axle net income up 28% in first quarter - The Detroit News
AAM Reports First Quarter 2017 Financial Results
PR Newswire (press release) - May 5, 2017
DETROIT, May 5, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AAM), (NYSE: AXL) today reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2017.
Its time to give a fresh look to American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc ...
USA Commerce Daily - 3 hours ago
Shares of American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:AXL) are on a recovery track as they have regained 20.78% since bottoming out at $12.61 on Nov. 09, 2016.
Reaffirms Overweight Rating for American Axle & Manufact. Holdings, Inc. (AXL) - pppFocus
Thoughts on the Momentum: American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL ... - Post Analyst
Technical Reports on Auto Parts Equities -- BorgWarner, American Axle ...
PR Newswire (press release) - May 8, 2017
Stock-Callers.com is currently monitoring these four Auto Parts companies: BorgWarner Inc. (NYSE: BWA), American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AXL), Dana Inc. (NYSE: DAN), and Tenneco Inc. (NYSE: TEN). Demand for auto parts is driven by ...
RSI Alert: American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (AXL) Now Oversold
Nasdaq - May 25, 2017
In trading on Thursday, shares of American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (Symbol: AXL) entered into oversold territory, hitting an RSI reading of 29.0, after changing hands as low as $15.23 per share.
Is It Time to go for American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL), Yum ...
StockNewsJournal - May 24, 2017
Investors who are keeping close eye on the stock of American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:AXL) established that the company was able to keep return on investment at 7.73 in the trailing twelve month while Reuters data showed that industry ...
Were Analysts Bearish American Axle & Manufact. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:AXL) This ... - Finance News Daily
How much upside really exists in FMC Corporation (FMC) and American Axle ... - USA Commerce Daily
What Does The Chart For American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL ...
NY Stock News - May 26, 2017
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL) has presented a rich pool of technical data in recent sessions. These are the trends we've been tracking and how we feel they should be played in the current environment.
No More Ambiguity, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL) And Its ...
NY Stock News - May 8, 2017
The technicals for American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL) has spoken via its technical chart and the message is loud and clear.
Just the Facts on American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL)
StockNewsJournal - May 3, 2017
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL) is an interesting player in the Consumer Goods space, with a focus on Auto Parts.
Stock Returns: American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (NYSE:AXL) versus ... - CML News
Hot Stock for Investors: American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (AXL) - FactsReporter
BRIEF-American Axle Q1 earnings per share $0.99
Reuters - May 5, 2017
BRIEF-American Axle Q1 earnings per share $0.99. May 5 American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. * AAM reports first quarter 2017 financial results.
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for AXL to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate AXL's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$15.23 Current Price

$21.96 Growth Price (DCF)

Undervalued by 44.16%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: -15.93%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: 0.0%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$33.98 Book Price

Undervalued by 123.11%


Poor Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

AXL has been unable to consistently generate sufficient returns from its investments in buildings, projects and equipment. This could be due to poor management, lack of an economic moat or the capital intensive nature of the business.

AXL has only created $0.44 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow -383.10M -28.90M 111.90M 184.10M 180.00M
divided by
Invested Capital 2.20B 2.21B 2.32B 2.22B 2.32B
Cash ROIC -17.39% -1.31% 4.82% 8.29% 7.77%

Varying Return on Equity over the past 5 years

AXL has generated strong profits with money shareholders have invested. However, there is a substantial variation in their Return on Equity from year-to-year. This may reflect management's inability to generate consistent returns or may be caused by one-time events. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

AXL has generated $106.18 of Earnings for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Net Income 366.70M 94.50M 143.00M 235.60M 240.70M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity -120.80M 33.60M 113.40M 301.50M 530.00M
Return on Equity - 281.25% 126.10% 78.14% 45.42%

Mediocre Business Performance over the past 10 years

AXL isn't a strong business and might be consistently attempting to fuel growth with debt or has trouble staying profitable. The lack of predictability in free cash flow should be concerning for the reliability of future earnings.

AXL has been unable to consistently create value for shareholders.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 181.40M -303.30M -125.60M 124.20M -232.80M -383.10M -28.90M 111.90M 184.10M 180.00M

Weak Balance Sheet

AXL's financial position is not ideal. The key is to check whether AXL is using debt to fuel its growth and the sustainability of that tendency. Highly capital intensive businesses (see Economic Moat) follow this route, which can deeply impact the future prospects of the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Cash 343.60M 275.90M 182.30M 244.60M 169.20M 62.40M 154.00M 249.20M 282.50M 481.20M
Current Assets 934.60M 695.30M 516.60M 602.10M 763.10M 872.10M 997.80M 1.14B 1.12B 1.34B
Total Assets 2.91B 2.25B 1.99B 2.11B 2.33B 2.87B 3.03B 3.26B 3.20B 3.45B
Current Liabilities 511.60M 517.70M 445.50M 569.10M 576.10M 600.80M 667.10M 687.20M 699.20M 651.50M
Total Liabilities 2.02B 2.68B 2.55B 2.59B 2.75B 2.99B 3.00B 3.15B 2.90B 2.92B
Stockholder' Equity 890.70M -435.70M -560.20M -479.50M -425.50M -120.80M 33.60M 113.40M 301.50M 530.00M
Current Ratio 1.83 1.34 1.16 1.06 1.32 1.45 1.50 1.66 1.61 2.05
TL-to-TA 0.69 1.19 1.28 1.23 1.18 1.04 0.99 0.97 0.91 0.85

Consistent Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

AXL has consistently retained profits. This may put AXL in a strong position to invest for the future, by buying new machinery, investing in R&D or a number of other options. By effectively using these earnings, AXL can greatly improve their long-term economic picture.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Retained Earnings 583.20M -648.60M -901.70M -786.30M -643.50M -275.80M -181.30M -31.40M 204.20M 449.70M
Retained Earnings Growth - -211.21% -39.02% 12.80% 18.16% 57.14% 34.26% 82.68% 750.32% 120.23%

Loss Making Entity over the past 10 years

AXL has been unable to maintain profitability. It's Costs of Sales have outstripped Revenue consistently. This is a huge red flag, unless the company has been investing heavily for the future. However, even that is dubious since accurately predicting the future of a company like that is extremely difficult.

$3.15 of every $100 of Revenue have been a loss, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Net Income 37.00M -1.22B -253.10M 115.40M 142.80M 366.70M 94.50M 143.00M 235.60M 240.70M
divided by
Revenue 3.25B 2.11B 1.52B 2.28B 2.59B 2.93B 3.21B 3.70B 3.90B 3.95B
Net Profit Margin 1.14% -58.05% -16.63% 5.05% 5.52% 12.51% 2.95% 3.87% 6.04% 6.10%

Erratic Gross Profit Margins over the past 10 years

AXL has had highly erratic gross profit margins which are a great cause for concern. This company may operate in a highly volatile industry, or it may just have poor performance. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to understand if there is any reason to look past it.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Gross Profit 278.40M -865.20M -31.10M 401.70M 2.59B 399.70M 478.70M 522.80M 635.40M 726.10M
divided by
Revenue 3.25B 2.11B 1.52B 2.28B 2.59B 2.93B 3.21B 3.70B 3.90B 3.95B
Gross Margin 8.57% -41.02% -2.04% 17.60% 100.00% 13.64% 14.93% 14.15% 16.28% 18.39%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

AXL spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

171.57% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Capital Expenditure 186.50M 140.20M 141.50M 116.10M 176.50M 207.60M 251.90M 206.50M 193.50M 227.60M
divided by
Net Income 37.00M -1.22B -253.10M 115.40M 142.80M 366.70M 94.50M 143.00M 235.60M 240.70M
Capital Expenditure Ratio 504.05% -11.45% -55.91% 100.61% 123.60% 56.61% 266.56% 144.41% 82.13% 94.56%

Inconsistent Dividend History over the past 10 years

AXL has started distributing dividends in the past couple years or has recently suspended their dividend distribution. The reliability of future distributions is unclear.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Dividend Paid 31.80M 18.30M - - - - - - - -
divided by
Shares Outstanding 52.86M 51.60M 52.60M 74.50M 75.40M 75.40M 76.80M 75.90M 76.30M 76.90M
Dividend Paid Per Share 0.60 0.35 - - - - - - - -
Price at Year End 18.16 2.33 8.08 12.77 9.89 10.88 20.18 22.70 19.39 19.30
Dividend Yield 3.31% 15.22% - - - - - - - -

History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

AXL has some history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Shares Outstanding 52.86M 51.60M 52.60M 74.50M 75.40M 75.40M 76.80M 75.90M 76.30M 76.90M
Stock Bought Back - 2.44% -1.90% -29.40% -1.19% - -1.82% 1.19% -0.52% -0.78%
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