CCL  Carnival Corporation

Exchange

NYSE

Sector

Consumer Services

Industry

Marine Transportation

Market Cap.

47.87B

Vuru Grade

52.15/100

Current Price

$66.39
+0.37 (+0.56%)

Growth Price

$56.63
Overvalued by 14.70%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 18.06
  • P/S 2.77
  • P/B 1.97
  • EPS 3.68
  • Cash ROIC 4.15%
  • Cash Ratio 0.09
  • Dividend 1.8 / 2.68%
  • Avg. Vol. 3.38M
  • Shares 721.04M
  • Market Cap. 47.87B

Company Description

Carnival Corporation operates as a cruise and vacation company. It provides cruises to various vacation destinations with a portfolio of cruise brands comprising Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, and Seabourn in North America; and AIDA Cruises, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Ibero Cruises, and P&O Cruises in Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company also involves in operation o... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

Carnival Corp. to proceed cautiously with Ocean Medallion
Travel Weekly - Nov 17, 2017
FORT LAUDERDALE -- Carnival Corp. is taking a slow approach to introducing Ocean Medallion technology, making sure it works right and is delivering the services that customers really want, CEO Arnold Donald said Friday at Travel Weekly's CruiseWorld.
Carnival Corp. completes Port Everglades upgrades and more hospitality news ...
South Florida Business Journal - Nov 15, 2017
Carnival Corp. & plc announced last week that it completed an extensive multimillion-dollar upgrade of Cruise Terminal 2 at Broward County's Port Everglades.
Carnival Corp Stock Is Cruising with the Wind at Its Back
Investorplace.com - Nov 1, 2017
Though Carnival stock is up 29% YTD, it still trades at a discounted multiple to other mega cruise liner peers. To be fair, it's been a good couple of years for the cruise liners, with markedly lower fuel costs and increase in their major demographic ...
Carnival Corporation (CCL) Moves Higher on Volume Spike for November 02 - Equities.com
Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Buys A Little More Carnival ... - HugoPress
Carnival Corp. Brands Returning to Grand Turk, St. Thomas and San Juan
Cruise Industry News - Nov 4, 2017
Carnival Corporation has announced that seven of its brands are returning to Grand Turk, St. Thomas and San Juan starting this month.
When Will Cruise Lines Return to Hurricane Hit Destinations? - Cruise Hive
Cover Story: Arnold Donald's success on the high seas
South Florida Business Journal - Oct 26, 2017
It was pouring rain on Arnold Donald's first day as CEO of Carnival Corp. & plc. Ship wrecks and malfunctions were dominating headlines about the company (NYSE: CCL).
Evaluating Insider Trading And Ownership For Carnival Corporation (CCL) - Economic News
EPS for Carnival Corp (CCL) Expected At $0.70 - Weekly Register
Carnival Corp - Receive News & Ratings Daily
WeeklyHub - 11 hours ago
Investors sentiment decreased to 1.12 in Q2 2017. Its down 0.03, from 1.15 in 2017Q1. It dived, as 38 investors sold Carnival Corp shares while 225 reduced holdings. 89 funds opened positions while 205 raised stakes. 408.62 million shares or 0.87% less ...
Carnival Corp. Adds Ocean Medallion Features to Port Everglades
Travel Agent - Nov 10, 2017
Carnival Corporation has completed an extensive, multimillion-dollar redesign and upgrade of Cruise Terminal 2 at Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
Voices: John Haeflinger, Carnival Corp.
MarineLink - Oct 31, 2017
Tasked to keep the company's ships running efficiently and environmentally sound is John Haeflinger, VP of maritime policy and analysis, who directly oversees the sustainability team at Carnival Corp. Haeflinger shares with Maritime Reporter ...
More Carnival Corp. Brands to Return to Grand Turk, St. Thomas, San Juan
Travel Agent - Nov 6, 2017
The announcement follows Carnival Ecstasy's November 1 call at Grand Turk, marking Carnival Cruise Line's official return to the destination.
Carnival Corp (CCL) EPS Estimated At $0.51
WeeklyHub - Nov 20, 2017
Investors sentiment decreased to 1.12 in Q2 2017. Its down 0.03, from 1.15 in 2017Q1. It worsened, as 38 investors sold Carnival Corp shares while 225 reduced holdings. 89 funds opened positions while 205 raised stakes. 408.62 million shares or 0.87% ...
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for CCL to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate CCL's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$66.39 Current Price

$56.63 Growth Price (DCF)

Overvalued by 14.70%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: 15.82%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: 7.9%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$40.01 Book Price

Overvalued by 39.73%


Poor Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

CCL has been unable to consistently generate sufficient returns from its investments in buildings, projects and equipment. This could be due to poor management, lack of an economic moat or the capital intensive nature of the business.

CCL has only created $4.15 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in November
20122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 667.00M 685.00M 847.00M 2.25B 2.07B
divided by
Invested Capital 31.36B 32.92B 32.28B 30.89B 31.26B
Cash ROIC 2.13% 2.08% 2.62% 7.29% 6.63%

Poor Return on Equity over the past 5 years

CCL has shown an inability to deliver strong results for shareholders. This could be due to poor management, CCL operating in a highly competitive industry, or having a weak business in general.

CCL has only generated $6.92 of Earnings for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in November
20122013201420152016
Net Income 1.30B 1.08B 1.24B 1.76B 2.78B
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 23.93B 24.56B 24.29B 23.77B 22.60B
Return on Equity 5.42% 4.39% 5.09% 7.39% 12.30%

Excellent Business Performance over the past 10 years

CCL has been able to maintain profitability in good times and bad. This could mean CCL has an extremely strong business or has the ability to scale down costs when needed. This should be a fairly resilient business, but double check for future sustainability by looking at its Risk Factors in the Annual Report.

CCL has created positive free cash flow for 9 or more of the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in November
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 757.00M 38.00M -38.00M 239.00M 1.07B 667.00M 685.00M 847.00M 2.25B 2.07B

Good Balance Sheet

CCL's Total Assets double Total Liabilities. Its financial position is adequate. Remember to check Shareholders' Equity to see if it's stable or growing. It's one of the best measures of whether a company is creating value for shareholders.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in November
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Cash 943.00M 650.00M 538.00M 429.00M 450.00M 465.00M 462.00M 331.00M 1.40B 603.00M
Current Assets 1.98B 1.65B 1.52B 1.24B 1.31B 1.82B 1.94B 1.50B 2.45B 1.69B
Total Assets 34.18B 33.40B 36.84B 37.49B 38.64B 39.16B 40.10B 39.53B 39.24B 38.94B
Current Liabilities 7.26B 5.78B 4.97B 5.76B 6.11B 7.34B 6.72B 6.92B 6.96B 7.07B
Total Liabilities 14.22B 14.30B 14.80B 14.46B 14.81B 15.23B 15.55B 15.24B 15.47B 16.34B
Stockholder' Equity 19.96B 19.10B 22.04B 23.03B 23.83B 23.93B 24.56B 24.29B 23.77B 22.60B
Current Ratio 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.22 0.21 0.25 0.29 0.22 0.35 0.24
TL-to-TA 0.42 0.43 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.42

Consistent Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

CCL has consistently retained profits. This may put CCL in a strong position to invest for the future, by buying new machinery, investing in R&D or a number of other options. By effectively using these earnings, CCL can greatly improve their long-term economic picture.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in November
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Retained Earnings 12.92B 13.98B 15.77B 17.22B 18.35B 18.48B 18.78B 19.24B 20.06B 21.84B
Retained Earnings Growth - 8.20% 12.80% 9.22% 6.53% 0.71% 1.64% 2.45% 4.25% 8.89%

Potential Competitive Advantage over the past 10 years

CCL potentially has a competitive advantage. This could be strong branding, the ability to keep costs low, or some other characteristic that is hard to replicate. Look at its future prospects to determine sustainability and whether the economic moat will strengthen.

$12.51 of every $100 of Revenue have been pure profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in November
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Net Income 2.41B 2.33B 1.79B 1.98B 1.91B 1.30B 1.08B 1.24B 1.76B 2.78B
divided by
Revenue 13.03B 14.65B 13.16B 14.47B 15.79B 15.38B 15.46B 15.88B 15.71B 16.39B
Net Profit Margin 18.48% 15.91% 13.60% 13.67% 12.11% 8.44% 6.97% 7.78% 11.18% 16.96%

Satisfactory Pricing Power over the past 10 years

Consistency is vital. CCL has been able to maintain gross margins fairly consistently, which is a strong indication of their ability to raise prices with inflation. This potentially leaves flexibility in inflationary environments to raise prices on consumers and maintain profitability.

$37.14 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in November
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Gross Profit 5.41B 5.61B 5.05B 5.38B 5.49B 5.06B 4.83B 5.48B 6.27B 7.01B
divided by
Revenue 13.03B 14.65B 13.16B 14.47B 15.79B 15.38B 15.46B 15.88B 15.71B 16.39B
Gross Margin 41.47% 38.28% 38.41% 37.16% 34.79% 32.91% 31.26% 34.51% 39.88% 42.75%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

CCL spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

162.10% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in November
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Capital Expenditure 3.31B 3.35B 3.38B 3.58B 2.70B 2.33B 2.15B 2.58B 2.29B 3.06B
divided by
Net Income 2.41B 2.33B 1.79B 1.98B 1.91B 1.30B 1.08B 1.24B 1.76B 2.78B
Capital Expenditure Ratio 137.54% 143.91% 188.83% 180.94% 141.00% 179.66% 199.35% 208.98% 130.56% 110.18%

Very Strong Dividend History over the past 10 years

CCL has consistently distributed a dividend for at least the past 10 years. Such a long dividend history suggests CCL is very established in its market and that its dividend distribution is likely to continue for a significant period of time.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in November
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Dividend Paid 990.00M 1.26B 314.00M 237.00M 671.00M 779.00M 1.16B 776.00M 816.00M 977.00M
divided by
Shares Outstanding 816.27M 816.00M 804.00M 805.00M 789.00M 779.00M 777.00M 778.00M 779.00M 747.00M
Dividend Paid Per Share 1.21 1.55 0.39 0.29 0.85 1.00 1.50 1.00 1.05 1.31
Price at Year End 41.28 23.07 30.63 44.31 32.37 36.03 40.14 45.48 55.04 52.06
Dividend Yield 2.94% 6.70% 1.28% 0.66% 2.63% 2.78% 3.73% 2.19% 1.90% 2.51%

Strong History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

CCL has a strong history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in November
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Shares Outstanding 816.27M 816.00M 804.00M 805.00M 789.00M 779.00M 777.00M 778.00M 779.00M 747.00M
Stock Bought Back - 0.03% 1.49% -0.12% 2.03% 1.28% 0.26% -0.13% -0.13% 4.28%
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Discussion
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2
Posted by pbanik  (on August 20, 2012)
CJKnox is correct. It's a so-so stock, but there are better opportunities out there if you look for them. I would say CCL is probably fairly valued.
1
Posted by CJKnox  (on August 16, 2012)
CCL is doing fine, not great but fine, considering the economic climate and considering that they've weathered many economic storms before, they are a good investment......for the long term investor.
0
Posted by A3thbklamy  (on August 18, 2012)
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