DLTR  Dollar Tree Inc.

Exchange

NASDAQ

Sector

Consumer Services

Industry

Department/Specialty Retail Stores

Market Cap.

18.75B

Vuru Grade

46.66/100

Current Price

$79.41
+1.84 (+2.37%)

Growth Price

$32.30
Overvalued by 59.33%

Stability Price

$71.37
Overvalued by 10.12%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 23.35
  • P/S 0.9
  • P/B 3.63
  • EPS 3.4
  • Cash ROIC 22.43%
  • Cash Ratio 0.35
  • Dividend 0 / 0%
  • Avg. Vol. 2.66M
  • Shares 236.12M
  • Market Cap. 18.75B

Company Description

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States. Its stores offer merchandise at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, basic health, and beauty care; household consumables, such as paper, plastics, and household chemicals, as well as fr... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) Moves Higher on Volume Spike for February 24
Equities.com - 22 hours ago
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) traded on unusually high volume on Feb. 24, as the stock gained 2.37% to close at $79.41. On the day, Dollar Tree Inc. saw 5.72 million shares trade hands on 43,933 trades. Considering that the stock averages only a daily volume ...
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR): From Top to Bottom - StockNewsJournal
Dollar Tree: A Good Bargain
Seeking Alpha - Feb 1, 2017
The shares of Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) represents excellent value at these prices. It seems that the Dollar General acquisition as of July 6, 2015 is definitively showing benefits and the current 12% discount to the overall market represents an ...
Boston Family Office LLC Has $7887000 Stake in Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) - The Cerbat Gem
Large Buying Action and Inflow of Money Witnessed in Dollar Tree, Inc. - Highland Mirror
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) Rises 3.56% for February 09
Equities.com - Feb 9, 2017
Among the biggest risers on the S&P 500 on Thursday February 09 was Dollar Tree Inc. ($DLTR), popping some 3.56% to a price of $79.39 a share with some 4.52 million shares trading hands.
Dollar Tree Inc Risk Points versus Consumer Staples - CML News
Analysts Near-Term outlook: Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), Praxair, Inc. (PX) - The USA Commerce
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) Rises 2.56% for February 20
Equities.com - Feb 20, 2017
Among the biggest risers on the S&P 500 on Monday February 20 was Dollar Tree Inc. ($DLTR), popping some 2.56% to a price of $80.00 a share with some 2.61 million shares trading hands.
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) Rises 2.7% for February 14
Equities.com - Feb 14, 2017
Among the biggest risers on the S&P 500 on Tuesday February 14 was Dollar Tree Inc. ($DLTR), popping some 2.7% to a price of $79.80 a share with some 2.74 million shares trading hands.
Why Investors remained confident on Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), The Allstate ... - StockNewsJournal
Impact of Brokerage Rating on Dollar Tree, Inc.(DLTR) - Highland Mirror
Retail stocks jolted once again by border tax talk
Seeking Alpha - Feb 24, 2017
Retail stocks moving in reaction to the latest twist on the border tax story include Dollar Tree (DLTR +3.6%), Dollar General (DG +2.8%), Fred's (FRED +4.7%), Big Lots (BIG +3%), Target (TGT +2%), Children's Place (PLCE +4.9%), Wal-Mart Stores (WMT ...
Analysts Near-Term outlook: Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), The Clorox Company (CLX)
The USA Commerce - Feb 20, 2017
Shares of Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) surged 2.56% to $80.00. During the trading on 02/17/2017, Company's stock ranged from $77.67 to $80.20.
Large Outflow of Money Witnessed in Dollar Tree, Inc.
Highland Mirror - Feb 13, 2017
Shares of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) advanced to $79.64. The price had gained 0.31% or 0.25 points intraday. The latest trading session witnessed $5.51 million in upticks and $10.82 million in downticks, resulting in net money flow of (-5.3) million.
Investor's Watch List: Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) - TopChronicle
Today's Brokerage Rating: Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), The Southern Company (SO) - StockNewsJournal
Option Market: Dollar Tree Inc Risk Hits An Escalated Level
CML News - Feb 15, 2017
We're going to look at a proprietary risk rating for the next 30-days built by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Dollar Tree Inc (NASDAQ ...
The Airain ltd Takes Position in Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)
Petro Global News 24 - 15 hours ago
Airain ltd acquired a new stake in Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) during the third quarter, Holdings Channel reports.
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for DLTR to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate DLTR's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$79.41 Current Price

$32.30 Growth Price (DCF)

Overvalued by 59.33%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: 48.13%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: 12.7%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$71.37 Stability Price (EPV)

Overvalued by 10.12%


Discount Rate: 15.0%

$111.39 Book Price

Undervalued by 40.27%


Excellent Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

DLTR has efficiently invested its financial resources in buildings, projects, and equipment, resulting in strong returns. Annual Reports can be useful in identifying the cause of one-time events and future sustainability.

DLTR has created $22.43 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
20122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 436.40M 365.50M 463.00M 601.20M 300.40M
divided by
Invested Capital 1.46B 1.68B 1.82B 1.84B 13.07B
Cash ROIC 29.90% 21.81% 25.47% 32.65% 2.30%

Excellent Return on Equity over the past 5 years

Over the past 5 years, DLTR has generated strong profits with money shareholders have invested. This is considered one of the best indicators of quality management. Beware of extremely high Return on Equity (> 50%) as this is often unsustainable.

DLTR has generated $32.88 of Earnings for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
20122013201420152016
Net Income 488.30M 619.30M 596.70M 599.20M 282.40M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 1.34B 1.67B 1.17B 1.79B 4.41B
Return on Equity 36.32% 37.14% 50.97% 33.57% 6.41%

Excellent Business Performance over the past 10 years

DLTR has been able to maintain profitability in good times and bad. This could mean DLTR has an extremely strong business or has the ability to scale down costs when needed. This should be a fairly resilient business, but double check for future sustainability by looking at its Risk Factors in the Annual Report.

DLTR has created positive free cash flow for 9 or more of the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 183.40M 171.70M 271.80M 416.20M 340.00M 436.40M 365.50M 463.00M 601.20M 300.40M

Weak Balance Sheet

DLTR's financial position is not ideal. The key is to check whether DLTR is using debt to fuel its growth and the sustainability of that tendency. Highly capital intensive businesses (see Economic Moat) follow this route, which can deeply impact the future prospects of the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Cash 85.00M 81.10M 364.40M 599.40M 486.00M 288.30M 399.90M 267.70M 864.10M 740.10M
Current Assets 959.00M 788.80M 1.07B 1.31B 1.33B 1.21B 1.47B 1.38B 1.99B 3.94B
Total Assets 1.87B 1.79B 2.04B 2.29B 2.38B 2.33B 2.75B 2.77B 3.57B 15.90B
Current Liabilities 383.30M 405.90M 409.90M 475.90M 532.80M 581.00M 676.20M 686.30M 861.60M 2.10B
Total Liabilities 705.60M 799.30M 782.50M 860.50M 921.50M 984.00M 1.08B 1.60B 1.78B 11.49B
Stockholder' Equity 1.17B 988.40M 1.25B 1.43B 1.46B 1.34B 1.67B 1.17B 1.79B 4.41B
Current Ratio 2.50 1.94 2.62 2.74 2.50 2.08 2.18 2.01 2.31 1.88
TL-to-TA 0.38 0.45 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.42 0.39 0.58 0.50 0.72

Consistent Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

DLTR has consistently retained profits. This may put DLTR in a strong position to invest for the future, by buying new machinery, investing in R&D or a number of other options. By effectively using these earnings, DLTR can greatly improve their long-term economic picture.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Retained Earnings 1.17B 987.40M 1.22B 1.43B 1.46B 1.34B 1.67B 1.17B 1.77B 2.06B
Retained Earnings Growth - -15.36% 23.24% 17.57% 1.92% -7.82% 23.97% -29.50% 51.00% 15.92%

Competitive Industry over the past 10 years

DLTR is likely operating in an industry with medium to low barriers to entry. This may mean that DLTR doesn't have a characteristic that's hard to replicate, such as exclusive distribution, branding or the ability to keep costs low. If Gross Margins are at least satisfactory, it's likely that DLTR invests heavily in R&D and Sales, General & Administrative expenses.

Only $5.95 of every $100 of Revenue have been profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Net Income 192.00M 201.30M 229.50M 320.50M 397.30M 488.30M 619.30M 596.70M 599.20M 282.40M
divided by
Revenue 3.97B 4.24B 4.64B 5.23B 5.88B 6.63B 7.39B 7.84B 8.60B 15.50B
Net Profit Margin 4.84% 4.74% 4.94% 6.13% 6.75% 7.36% 8.38% 7.61% 6.97% 1.82%

Varying Pricing Power over the past 10 years

DLTR has maintained substantial gross margins, suggesting that they have been able to set prices without consideration of the cost of goods sold. However, there is a substantial variation in their Gross Profit Margins from year-to-year, which indicates inconsistent performance. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

$41.07 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Gross Profit 1.36B 1.46B 1.59B 1.86B 2.09B 6.63B 2.65B 2.79B 3.03B 4.66B
divided by
Revenue 3.97B 4.24B 4.64B 5.23B 5.88B 6.63B 7.39B 7.84B 8.60B 15.50B
Gross Margin 34.19% 34.44% 34.28% 35.49% 35.49% 100.00% 35.87% 35.58% 35.27% 30.05%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

DLTR spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

75.17% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Capital Expenditure 229.40M 195.60M 131.30M 164.80M 178.70M 250.10M 312.20M 330.40M 325.60M 480.50M
divided by
Net Income 192.00M 201.30M 229.50M 320.50M 397.30M 488.30M 619.30M 596.70M 599.20M 282.40M
Capital Expenditure Ratio 119.48% 97.17% 57.21% 51.42% 44.98% 51.22% 50.41% 55.37% 54.34% 170.15%

No Dividend History over the past 10 years

DLTR has never distributed dividends or has recently suspended their dividend distribution.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Dividend Paid - - - - - - - - - -
divided by
Shares Outstanding 155.70M 144.60M 136.20M 135.00M 128.00M 121.20M 230.70M 219.10M 207.00M 223.50M
Dividend Paid Per Share - - - - - - - - - -
Price at Year End 17.42 27.22 32.45 56.39 83.11 39.60 56.35 70.70 77.62 77.18
Dividend Yield - - - - - - - - - -

Strong History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

DLTR has a strong history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Shares Outstanding 155.70M 144.60M 136.20M 135.00M 128.00M 121.20M 230.70M 219.10M 207.00M 223.50M
Stock Bought Back - 7.68% 6.17% 0.89% 5.47% 5.61% -47.46% 5.29% 5.85% -7.38%
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