FLO  Flowers Foods Inc.

Exchange

NYSE

Sector

Consumer Non-Durables

Industry

Packaged Foods

Market Cap.

4.10B

Vuru Grade

68.94/100

Current Price

$19.57
+0.16 (+0.82%)

Growth Price

$15.66
Overvalued by 19.97%

Stability Price

$23.79
Undervalued by 21.57%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 25.12
  • P/S 1.04
  • P/B 3.36
  • EPS 0.78
  • Cash ROIC 8.34%
  • Cash Ratio 0.04
  • Dividend 0.64 / 3.3%
  • Avg. Vol. 2.32M
  • Shares 209.50M
  • Market Cap. 4.10B

Company Description

Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and markets bakery products in the United States. It operates in two segments, Direct-Store-Delivery (DSD) and Warehouse Delivery. The DSD segment produces and markets fresh and frozen packaged bread and rolls, tortillas, sandwich rounds, thin sliced bagels, and whole grain white bread under the brand names of Flowers Foods, Nature's Own, Whitewheat, Cobblestone Mill, ... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

Flowers Foods: Irrational Sell-Off After Fourth-Quarter Earnings
Seeking Alpha - Feb 16, 2017
On February 14, 2017, Flowers Foods (NYSE:FLO) reported earnings for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2016. Despite it being Valentine's Day, investors did not love the stock after the company's earnings announcement. Flowers Foods stock dropped ...
Bernstein Liebhard LLP Investigates Claims On Behalf Of Current Shareholders ... - PR Newswire (press release)
Why Northern Dynasty Minerals, Tile Shop Holdings, and Flowers Foods Slumped Today
Motley Fool - Feb 14, 2017
Finally, Flowers Foods stock declined 9%. The bakery company saw only sluggish growth during its fourth quarter, including sales gains of just over 1% and adjusted net income increasing just 0.5%.
Flowers Foods Inc.: Announces Conference Call and Webcast Fourth Quarter and ...
Yahoo Finance - Jan 30, 2017
THOMASVILLE, GA; January 30, 2017-Flowers Foods (FLO) will hold a live webcast on Tuesday, February 14, 2017 to review fourth quarter and full 2016 earnings and provide a progress update on Project Centennial, the company`s comprehensive business ...
The Key Figures To Watch From Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) Earnings - The Voice Registrar
The Advance Capital I Inc. Has $538000 Stake in Flowers Foods Inc. (FLO) - DailyQuint
The Zacks Investment Research Downgrade Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) to Sell
DailyQuint - 6 hours ago
Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) was downgraded by Zacks Investment Research from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note issued on Wednesday.
KeyCorp Weighs in on Flowers Foods, Inc.'s FY2017 Earnings (FLO) - Sports Perspectives
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) Shares Bought by Brown Advisory Inc. - BNB Daily (blog)
Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) had its Actual EPS of 0.28 in the Last Quarter
FactsReporter - Feb 10, 2017
Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) moved up 1.82% and closed its last trading session at $20.7. This Consumer Staples Sector stock currently has the Market Capitalization of 4.28 Billion.
The BlackRock Advisors LLC Sells 168947 Shares of Flowers Foods Inc. (FLO) - DailyQuint
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) Scheduled to Post Earnings on Tuesday
Sports Perspectives - Feb 10, 2017
Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) is scheduled to post its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, February 14th. Individual that are interested in participating in the company's earnings conference call can do so using this link.
Forward Earnings Estimate of Flowers Foods, Inc.(FLO) - Highland Mirror
Earnings Clues on Fortress Investment Group LLC (FIG), Flowers Foods, Inc ... - StockNewsJournal
Stock Returns: Flowers Foods Inc (NYSE:FLO) versus Treehouse Foods Inc (NYSE:THS)
CML News - Feb 17, 2017
This is a snapshot to compare the stock returns for Flowers Foods Inc (NYSE:FLO) versus Treehouse Foods Inc (NYSE:THS) . The stock return points we compare look at the last three-months, six-months and twelve-months.
The Technical Case for and Against Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO)
The USA Commerce - Feb 16, 2017
We have gathered the technical data on Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO), and see some interesting trends in the stock's behavior of late.
Buy, Sell or Hold? Analysts Approach: Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (CY ...
The USA Commerce - Feb 15, 2017
Shares of Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ:CY) surged 0.64% to $12.60. During the trading on 02/14/2017, Company's stock ranged from $12.33 to $12.75. The relative strength index or RSI highlights overbought (above 70) and oversold ...
A Technical Look At 2 Stocks: Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (CY), Flowers ... - Post Analyst
Significant Brokerage Ratings of Two Stocks: Cypress Semiconductor Corporation ... - The Voice Registrar
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) Receives Average Recommendation of “Hold” from Analysts
Sports Perspectives - Jan 26, 2017
Flowers Foods logo Shares of Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) have been assigned an average rating of “Hold” from the twelve research firms that are covering the company.
Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) Closed the Last Trading Session at $19.9 - The Newburgh Press
Advisors Asset Management Inc. Has $3469000 Stake in Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) - Community Financial News
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for FLO to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate FLO's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$19.57 Current Price

$15.66 Growth Price (DCF)

Overvalued by 19.97%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: 16.42%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: 8.2%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$23.79 Stability Price (EPV)

Undervalued by 21.57%


Discount Rate: 15.0%

$18.61 Book Price

Fairly valued


Poor Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

FLO has been unable to consistently generate sufficient returns from its investments in buildings, projects and equipment. This could be due to poor management, lack of an economic moat or the capital intensive nature of the business.

FLO has only created $8.34 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20112012201320142015
Free Cash Flow 55.13M 149.62M 171.30M 230.19M 228.46M
divided by
Invested Capital 1.28B 1.63B 2.17B 2.09B 2.47B
Cash ROIC 4.31% 9.19% 7.90% 11.04% 9.26%

Excellent Return on Equity over the past 5 years

Over the past 5 years, FLO has generated strong profits with money shareholders have invested. This is considered one of the best indicators of quality management. Beware of extremely high Return on Equity (> 50%) as this is often unsustainable.

FLO has generated $16.89 of Earnings for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20112012201320142015
Net Income 123.43M 136.12M 230.89M 175.74M 189.19M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 758.97M 858.62M 1.08B 1.12B 1.24B
Return on Equity 16.26% 15.85% 21.45% 15.65% 15.22%

Excellent Business Performance over the past 10 years

FLO has been able to maintain profitability in good times and bad. This could mean FLO has an extremely strong business or has the ability to scale down costs when needed. This should be a fairly resilient business, but double check for future sustainability by looking at its Risk Factors in the Annual Report.

FLO has created positive free cash flow for 9 or more of the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Free Cash Flow 89.48M 126.47M 8.01M 163.92M 207.65M 55.13M 149.62M 171.30M 230.19M 228.46M

Weak Balance Sheet

FLO's financial position is not ideal. The key is to check whether FLO is using debt to fuel its growth and the sustainability of that tendency. Highly capital intensive businesses (see Economic Moat) follow this route, which can deeply impact the future prospects of the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Cash 13.91M 19.98M 19.96M 18.95M 6.76M 7.78M 13.28M 8.53M 7.52M 14.38M
Current Assets 242.12M 269.23M 352.24M 338.96M 313.71M 378.57M 464.45M 487.41M 460.56M 537.52M
Total Assets 906.59M 987.54M 1.35B 1.35B 1.33B 1.55B 2.00B 2.50B 2.41B 2.89B
Current Liabilities 185.24M 213.65M 265.07M 221.77M 242.77M 268.42M 354.96M 327.78M 315.55M 403.74M
Total Liabilities 343.73M 331.32M 718.53M 635.50M 529.70M 795.03M 1.14B 1.43B 1.29B 1.64B
Stockholder' Equity 562.86M 656.22M 634.72M 715.95M 795.79M 758.97M 858.62M 1.08B 1.12B 1.24B
Current Ratio 1.31 1.26 1.33 1.53 1.29 1.41 1.31 1.49 1.46 1.33
TL-to-TA 0.38 0.34 0.53 0.47 0.40 0.51 0.57 0.57 0.53 0.57

Consistent Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

FLO has consistently retained profits. This may put FLO in a strong position to invest for the future, by buying new machinery, investing in R&D or a number of other options. By effectively using these earnings, FLO can greatly improve their long-term economic picture.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Retained Earnings 250.62M 303.39M 369.40M 437.52M 503.69M 548.00M 597.63M 735.63M 809.07M 877.82M
Retained Earnings Growth - 21.06% 21.76% 18.44% 15.12% 8.80% 9.06% 23.09% 9.98% 8.50%

Highly Competitive Industry over the past 10 years

It's likely that FLO is in an industry with low barriers to entry, spurring high competition. If Gross Margins are at least satisfactory, it's likely FLO invests heavily in R&D and Sales, General & Administrative expenses.

Only $4.90 of every $100 of Revenue have been profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Net Income 81.61M 94.62M 119.23M 130.30M 137.05M 123.43M 136.12M 230.89M 175.74M 189.19M
divided by
Revenue 1.89B 2.04B 2.41B 2.60B 2.57B 2.77B 3.05B 3.75B 3.75B 3.78B
Net Profit Margin 4.32% 4.65% 4.94% 5.01% 5.32% 4.45% 4.47% 6.16% 4.69% 5.01%

Varying Pricing Power over the past 10 years

FLO has maintained substantial gross margins, suggesting that they have been able to set prices without consideration of the cost of goods sold. However, there is a substantial variation in their Gross Profit Margins from year-to-year, which indicates inconsistent performance. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

$53.09 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Gross Profit 939.04M 997.66M 1.15B 1.21B 1.23B 2.77B 1.43B 1.78B 1.80B 1.82B
divided by
Revenue 1.89B 2.04B 2.41B 2.60B 2.57B 2.77B 3.05B 3.75B 3.75B 3.78B
Gross Margin 49.72% 48.98% 47.66% 46.55% 47.67% 100.00% 46.90% 47.42% 47.97% 48.04%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

FLO spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

62.36% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Capital Expenditure 61.79M 88.13M 86.86M 72.09M 98.40M 79.16M 67.26M 99.18M 83.78M 95.77M
divided by
Net Income 81.61M 94.62M 119.23M 130.30M 137.05M 123.43M 136.12M 230.89M 175.74M 189.19M
Capital Expenditure Ratio 75.72% 93.14% 72.85% 55.33% 71.80% 64.14% 49.41% 42.96% 47.67% 50.62%

Very Strong Dividend History over the past 10 years

FLO has consistently distributed a dividend for at least the past 10 years. Such a long dividend history suggests FLO is very established in its market and that its dividend distribution is likely to continue for a significant period of time.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Dividend Paid 28.99M 42.12M 53.22M 62.17M 70.88M 79.08M 86.49M 92.84M 102.30M 120.44M
divided by
Shares Outstanding 92.60M 92.37M 93.04M 92.73M 92.11M 136.88M 207.67M 211.93M 213.09M 213.36M
Dividend Paid Per Share 0.31 0.46 0.57 0.67 0.77 0.58 0.42 0.44 0.48 0.56
Price at Year End 10.52 14.26 14.66 14.99 17.47 18.98 22.94 21.57 19.62 21.81
Dividend Yield 2.98% 3.20% 3.90% 4.47% 4.40% 3.04% 1.82% 2.03% 2.45% 2.59%

History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

FLO has some history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Shares Outstanding 92.60M 92.37M 93.04M 92.73M 92.11M 136.88M 207.67M 211.93M 213.09M 213.36M
Stock Bought Back - 0.25% -0.72% 0.33% 0.68% -32.71% -34.09% -2.01% -0.55% -0.12%
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