FLO  Flowers Foods Inc.

Exchange

NYSE

Sector

Consumer Non-Durables

Industry

Packaged Foods

Market Cap.

4.05B

Vuru Grade

52.27/100

Current Price

$19.41
+0.06 (+0.31%)

Growth Price

$16.24
Overvalued by 16.31%

Stability Price

$10.80
Overvalued by 44.35%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 24.88
  • P/S 1.03
  • P/B 3.33
  • EPS 0.78
  • Cash ROIC 9.50%
  • Cash Ratio 0.02
  • Dividend 0.64 / 3.29%
  • Avg. Vol. 1.60M
  • Shares 208.66M
  • Market Cap. 4.05B

Company Description

Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and markets bakery products in the United States. It operates in two segments, Direct-Store-Delivery (DSD) and Warehouse Delivery. The DSD segment produces and markets fresh and frozen packaged bread and rolls, tortillas, sandwich rounds, thin sliced bagels, and whole grain white bread under the brand names of Flowers Foods, Nature's Own, Whitewheat, Cobblestone Mill, ... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

Flowers Foods Coasts Ahead, Disappointing Investors
Motley Fool - Feb 14, 2017
Coming into Monday's fourth-quarter financial report, Flowers investors were hoping to see at least some growth in sales and earnings, but the bakery company wasn't able to deliver the pace of expansion that most shareholders really want to see. Let's ...
Flowers Foods: Irrational Sell-Off After Fourth-Quarter Earnings - Seeking Alpha
Revenue Approximations Analysis: Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO), Nuance ...
StockNewsJournal - Mar 24, 2017
ROI deals with the invested cash in the company and the return the investor realize on that money based on the net profit of the business.
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) Ex-Dividend Date Scheduled for March 01, 2017
Nasdaq - Feb 28, 2017
Flowers Foods, Inc. ( FLO ) will begin trading ex-dividend on March 01, 2017. A cash dividend payment of $0.16 per share is scheduled to be paid on March 17, 2017.
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO), CIT Group Inc. (CIT) Stock Eyes Ahead of Earnings - The USA Commerce
Analysts Watch on Price Target Estimates: Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) - Post Registrar
Flowers Foods Inc Risk Points versus Consumer Staples
CML News - Mar 21, 2017
This is a scatter plot analysis of the critical risk points from the option market for Flowers Foods Inc (NYSE:FLO) compared to its own past and the Consumer Staples ETF.
Bernstein Liebhard LLP Continues To Investigate Claims On Behalf Of ...
PR Newswire (press release) - Mar 8, 2017
NEW YORK, March 8, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Bernstein Liebhard LLP continues to investigate whether the Board of Directors of Flowers Foods, Inc. ("Flowers Foods" or the "Company") breached their fiduciary duties to the Company's shareholders. Bernstein ...
What Analysts are Predicting For Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), Flowers Foods, Inc ...
The USA Commerce - Mar 23, 2017
Shares of Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) dropped -0.64% to $63.50. During the trading on 03/22/2017, Company's stock ranged from $64.11 to $63.25. The relative strength index or RSI highlights overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas.
Wunderlich Initiates Coverage On the shares of Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) to Buy - HugoPress
Consumer Goods Firms in Focus: Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) - TWN
Highly Traded Stock: Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO)
HugoPress - Mar 20, 2017
Wunderlich Initiates Coverage On Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO)'s stock to Buy with the price target of $24. This rating was issued on 1/13/17.
Stock Returns: Flowers Foods Inc (NYSE:FLO) versus The JM Smucker Company ... - CML News
Stock Price Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) Compared to Index - Highland Mirror
Trading Options During Earnings in Flowers Foods Inc (NYSE:FLO)
CML News - Mar 24, 2017
We're going to examine buying and selling out of the money strangles in Flowers Foods Inc and find out once and for all what the winning trades have been during earnings releases.
Stock Alert: Flowers Foods Inc Price Volatility Hits A Tumbling Low
CML News - Mar 23, 2017
Before we cover the full analysis we make a quick alert here that Flowers Foods Inc (NYSE:FLO) has seen its stock price move at a rock bottom low level.
Taking a Look at the Chart for Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO)
The USA Commerce - Mar 20, 2017
We have gathered the technical data on Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO), and see some interesting trends in the stock's behavior of late.
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for FLO to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate FLO's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$19.41 Current Price

$16.24 Growth Price (DCF)

Overvalued by 16.31%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: 14.65%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: 8.2%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$10.80 Stability Price (EPV)

Overvalued by 44.35%


Discount Rate: 15.0%

$19.10 Book Price

Fairly valued


Poor Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

FLO has been unable to consistently generate sufficient returns from its investments in buildings, projects and equipment. This could be due to poor management, lack of an economic moat or the capital intensive nature of the business.

FLO has only created $9.50 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 149.62M 171.30M 230.19M 228.46M 244.32M
divided by
Invested Capital 1.63B 2.17B 2.09B 2.47B 2.41B
Cash ROIC 9.19% 7.90% 11.04% 9.26% 10.12%

Excellent Return on Equity over the past 5 years

Over the past 5 years, FLO has generated strong profits with money shareholders have invested. This is considered one of the best indicators of quality management. Beware of extremely high Return on Equity (> 50%) as this is often unsustainable.

FLO has generated $16.34 of Earnings for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Net Income 136.12M 230.89M 175.74M 189.19M 163.78M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 858.62M 1.08B 1.12B 1.24B 1.21B
Return on Equity 15.85% 21.45% 15.65% 15.22% 13.53%

Excellent Business Performance over the past 10 years

FLO has been able to maintain profitability in good times and bad. This could mean FLO has an extremely strong business or has the ability to scale down costs when needed. This should be a fairly resilient business, but double check for future sustainability by looking at its Risk Factors in the Annual Report.

FLO has created positive free cash flow for 9 or more of the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 126.47M 8.01M 163.92M 207.65M 55.13M 149.62M 171.30M 230.19M 228.46M 244.32M

Weak Balance Sheet

FLO's financial position is not ideal. The key is to check whether FLO is using debt to fuel its growth and the sustainability of that tendency. Highly capital intensive businesses (see Economic Moat) follow this route, which can deeply impact the future prospects of the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Cash 19.98M 19.96M 18.95M 6.76M 7.78M 13.28M 8.53M 7.52M 14.38M 6.41M
Current Assets 269.23M 352.24M 338.96M 313.71M 378.57M 464.45M 487.41M 460.56M 537.52M 476.84M
Total Assets 987.54M 1.35B 1.35B 1.33B 1.55B 2.00B 2.50B 2.41B 2.89B 2.76B
Current Liabilities 213.65M 265.07M 221.77M 242.77M 268.42M 354.96M 327.78M 315.55M 403.74M 340.62M
Total Liabilities 331.32M 718.53M 635.50M 529.70M 795.03M 1.14B 1.43B 1.29B 1.64B 1.55B
Stockholder' Equity 656.22M 634.72M 715.95M 795.79M 758.97M 858.62M 1.08B 1.12B 1.24B 1.21B
Current Ratio 1.26 1.33 1.53 1.29 1.41 1.31 1.49 1.46 1.33 1.40
TL-to-TA 0.34 0.53 0.47 0.40 0.51 0.57 0.57 0.53 0.57 0.56

Consistent Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

FLO has consistently retained profits. This may put FLO in a strong position to invest for the future, by buying new machinery, investing in R&D or a number of other options. By effectively using these earnings, FLO can greatly improve their long-term economic picture.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Retained Earnings 303.39M 369.40M 437.52M 503.69M 548.00M 597.63M 735.63M 809.07M 877.82M 910.52M
Retained Earnings Growth - 21.76% 18.44% 15.12% 8.80% 9.06% 23.09% 9.98% 8.50% 3.73%

Highly Competitive Industry over the past 10 years

It's likely that FLO is in an industry with low barriers to entry, spurring high competition. If Gross Margins are at least satisfactory, it's likely FLO invests heavily in R&D and Sales, General & Administrative expenses.

Only $4.89 of every $100 of Revenue have been profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Net Income 94.62M 119.23M 130.30M 137.05M 123.43M 136.12M 230.89M 175.74M 189.19M 163.78M
divided by
Revenue 2.04B 2.41B 2.60B 2.57B 2.77B 3.05B 3.75B 3.75B 3.78B 3.93B
Net Profit Margin 4.65% 4.94% 5.01% 5.32% 4.45% 4.47% 6.16% 4.69% 5.01% 4.17%

Varying Pricing Power over the past 10 years

FLO has maintained substantial gross margins, suggesting that they have been able to set prices without consideration of the cost of goods sold. However, there is a substantial variation in their Gross Profit Margins from year-to-year, which indicates inconsistent performance. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

$52.96 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Gross Profit 997.66M 1.15B 1.21B 1.23B 2.77B 1.43B 1.78B 1.80B 1.82B 1.90B
divided by
Revenue 2.04B 2.41B 2.60B 2.57B 2.77B 3.05B 3.75B 3.75B 3.78B 3.93B
Gross Margin 48.98% 47.66% 46.55% 47.67% 100.00% 46.90% 47.42% 47.97% 48.04% 48.40%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

FLO spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

61.00% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Capital Expenditure 88.13M 86.86M 72.09M 98.40M 79.16M 67.26M 99.18M 83.78M 95.77M 101.73M
divided by
Net Income 94.62M 119.23M 130.30M 137.05M 123.43M 136.12M 230.89M 175.74M 189.19M 163.78M
Capital Expenditure Ratio 93.14% 72.85% 55.33% 71.80% 64.14% 49.41% 42.96% 47.67% 50.62% 62.11%

Very Strong Dividend History over the past 10 years

FLO has consistently distributed a dividend for at least the past 10 years. Such a long dividend history suggests FLO is very established in its market and that its dividend distribution is likely to continue for a significant period of time.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Dividend Paid 42.12M 53.22M 62.17M 70.88M 79.08M 86.49M 92.84M 102.30M 120.44M 131.07M
divided by
Shares Outstanding 92.37M 93.04M 92.73M 92.11M 136.88M 207.67M 211.93M 213.09M 213.36M 210.35M
Dividend Paid Per Share 0.46 0.57 0.67 0.77 0.58 0.42 0.44 0.48 0.56 0.62
Price at Year End 14.26 14.66 14.99 17.47 18.98 22.94 21.57 19.62 21.81 19.97
Dividend Yield 3.20% 3.90% 4.47% 4.40% 3.04% 1.82% 2.03% 2.45% 2.59% 3.12%

History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

FLO has some history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Shares Outstanding 92.37M 93.04M 92.73M 92.11M 136.88M 207.67M 211.93M 213.09M 213.36M 210.35M
Stock Bought Back - -0.72% 0.33% 0.68% -32.71% -34.09% -2.01% -0.55% -0.12% 1.43%
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