Forest Laboratories Inc.
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Posted by colinjensen (on March 18, 2012)
Big risk with Lexapro becoming generic. It accounted for 55% of their revenue in 2011.
Posted by dave_bilo (on March 21, 2012)
It was a big risk, now the market evaluate FRX FCFF whithout that revenu. The big problem is if they can continue to grow at the same rate despite the entry of new player that could drive up the price of new acquisitions.
Posted by colinjensen (on March 21, 2012)
Hmm, that's true. It does look like the market is assuming -20% growth. I don't know if they'll be able to come back from it... Where are the exciting drugs in pipeline... tough to speculate...
What do you mean about the entry of the new player?
Posted by buffettdisciple (on March 19, 2012)
Tough to say what the future looks like, but they did purchase Clinical Data Inc, a company with recently approved drug called Viibryd. It’s an antidepressant that was approved by the FDA in Jan 2011. Maybe it has potential?
Posted by gsanta111 (on March 23, 2012)
I hate the nature of the Pharmaceutical business. Too speculative for my taste. I would only jump in if the Stability Price and/or Net Current Asset Price was undervalued by at least 33% if not more.
Posted by dbronte (on March 23, 2012)
My peeve is the governments involvement. The regulations can have such an effect on these companies, and since the government is completely erratic sometimes you never know what's actually going to happen in the future.
Posted by gsanta111 (on March 29, 2012)
I don't really mind government involvement, keeps firms in line when it comes to public health (zyvox, anyone?).
I just hate the boom and bust cycles. They're always so heavily invested in ONE SINGLE new drug that if it doesn't work or gets delayed the whole business is in peril.
Got burned couple times and it never returned to previous levels because of the severity of the manic market swing.
Eventually, waiting around, the intrinsic value changed