GCO  Genesco Inc.

Exchange

NYSE

Sector

Consumer Services

Industry

Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores

Market Cap.

705.16M

Vuru Grade

63.15/100

Current Price

$36.75
+2.35 (+6.83%)

Growth Price

$65.59
Undervalued by 78.48%

Stability Price

$114.06
Undervalued by 210.38%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 8.25
  • P/S 0.23
  • P/B 0.72
  • EPS 4.45
  • Cash ROIC 5.49%
  • Cash Ratio 0.16
  • Dividend 0 / 0%
  • Avg. Vol. 411,456.00
  • Shares 19.19M
  • Market Cap. 705.16M

Company Description

Genesco Inc. engages in the retail of footwear, headwear, and sports apparel and accessories; and the wholesale of footwear. Its Journeys Group segment operates the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, and Shi by Journeys retail footwear chains, as well as involves in catalog and e-commerce operations. As of January 29, 2011, Journeys Group operated 1,017 stores, including 149 Journeys Kidz stores and 55 Shi ... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

Why Genesco Inc. Stock Plunged Today
Motley Fool - May 25, 2017
Shares of Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) were getting slammed today after the diversified apparel company posted disappointing results in its first-quarter report for fiscal 2018.
Genesco Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2018 Results - PR Newswire (press release)
Genesco Inc. (GCO) Has Plunged To A New Low After Guidance Lowered - Nasdaq
Genesco Inc. Earnings Drop 92% In Q1
Nasdaq - May 25, 2017
(RTTNews.com) - Genesco Inc. ( GCO ) revealed a profit for first quarter that fell compared to the same period last year. The company said its profit totaled $1.10 million, or $0.06 per share.
Q2 2018 Earnings Estimate for Genesco Inc. Issued By Jefferies Group (GCO)
Chaffey Breeze - 5 hours ago
Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) - Investment analysts at Jefferies Group dropped their Q2 2018 earnings per share estimates for shares of Genesco in a research report issued to clients and investors on Thursday.
Does Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) serve your interest?
FinancialsTrend - May 26, 2017
Shares of Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) last traded at $34.40. (NYSE:GCO) performance year to date is -44.61%. The 200 day simple moving average is -41.38%.
Option Trading Right Before Earnings in Genesco Inc
CML News - May 25, 2017
There is a wonderful secret to trading options right before earnings announcements in Genesco Inc (NYSE:GCO) , and really many stocks, that benefits from the rising implied volatility but avoids the risk into the actual earnings release and also avoids ...
Genesco Inc. (GCO) Settles Into New 52-Week Low on May 25 Session
Equities.com - May 25, 2017
Shares of Genesco Inc. (GCO) sank into a new 52-week low yesterday, and could be a company to watch at the open. The company's stock fell to as low as $33.55 yesterday after opening at $38.15.
Genesco Inc. (GCO) Settles Into New 52-Week Low on May 24 Session
Equities.com - May 24, 2017
Shares of Genesco Inc. (GCO) sank into a new 52-week low yesterday, and could be a company to watch at the open. The company's stock fell to as low as $44.15 yesterday after opening at $45.35.
The Must-Know Technicals As They Stand For Genesco Inc. (GCO)
NY Stock News - May 26, 2017
Genesco Inc. (GCO) has presented a rich pool of technical data in recent sessions. These are the trends we've been tracking and how we feel they should be played in the current environment.
Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) Stock Ticks -18.42%
Concord Register - 17 hours ago
Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) closed at $36.75 after seeing 1888860 shares trade hands during the most recent session. This represents a change of 7.93% from the opening.
Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) Shares Move -18.42%
Concord Register - 17 hours ago
Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) shares saw the needle move -18.42% on the week. The stock closed the most recent session at $36.75 after seeing 1888860 shares trade hands.
Somewhat Critical News Coverage Likely to Affect Genesco (GCO) Stock Price - Transcript Daily
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for GCO to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate GCO's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$36.75 Current Price

$65.59 Growth Price (DCF)

Undervalued by 78.48%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: -500.00%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: -6.6%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$114.06 Stability Price (EPV)

Undervalued by 210.38%


Discount Rate: 15.0%

$10.96 NCA Price

Overvalued by 70.17%

$74.63 Book Price

Undervalued by 103.07%


Poor Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

GCO has been unable to consistently generate sufficient returns from its investments in buildings, projects and equipment. This could be due to poor management, lack of an economic moat or the capital intensive nature of the business.

GCO has only created $5.49 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
20132014201520162017
Free Cash Flow 51.47M 41.54M 86.65M 44.47M 67.53M
divided by
Invested Capital 997.94M 1.07B 1.06B 1.08B 1.09B
Cash ROIC 5.16% 3.87% 8.14% 4.10% 6.19%

Satisfactory Return on Equity over the past 5 years

GCO has generated adequate returns with capital that shareholders have invested. This is sufficient and implies that management performance has been good.

GCO has generated $10.81 of Earnings for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
20132014201520162017
Net Income 110.54M 92.65M 97.73M 94.57M 97.43M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 808.59M 916.19M 996.81M 955.16M 921.05M
Return on Equity 13.67% 10.11% 9.80% 9.90% 10.58%

Excellent Business Performance over the past 10 years

GCO has been able to maintain profitability in good times and bad. This could mean GCO has an extremely strong business or has the ability to scale down costs when needed. This should be a fairly resilient business, but double check for future sustainability by looking at its Risk Factors in the Annual Report.

GCO has created positive free cash flow for 9 or more of the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Free Cash Flow -56.72M 129.68M 108.27M 73.31M 95.50M 51.47M 41.54M 86.65M 44.47M 67.53M

Good Balance Sheet

GCO's Total Assets double Total Liabilities. Its financial position is adequate. Remember to check Shareholders' Equity to see if it's stable or growing. It's one of the best measures of whether a company is creating value for shareholders.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Cash 17.70M 17.67M 82.15M 55.93M 53.79M 59.80M 59.45M 112.87M 133.29M 48.30M
Current Assets 383.67M 398.12M 450.07M 513.06M 595.31M 682.27M 756.88M 847.66M 800.09M 738.17M
Total Assets 804.56M 818.03M 863.65M 961.08M 1.24B 1.33B 1.44B 1.58B 1.54B 1.45B
Current Liabilities 145.57M 138.98M 169.66M 234.36M 304.46M 276.05M 305.58M 405.92M 323.62M 309.39M
Total Liabilities 383.14M 371.09M 281.34M 336.76M 521.90M 525.20M 523.09M 586.28M 586.33M 527.85M
Stockholder' Equity 421.42M 446.93M 582.31M 624.32M 715.36M 808.59M 916.19M 996.81M 955.16M 921.05M
Current Ratio 2.64 2.86 2.65 2.19 1.96 2.47 2.48 2.09 2.47 2.39
TL-to-TA 0.48 0.45 0.33 0.35 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.36

Consistent Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

GCO has consistently retained profits. This may put GCO in a strong position to invest for the future, by buying new machinery, investing in R&D or a number of other options. By effectively using these earnings, GCO can greatly improve their long-term economic picture.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Retained Earnings 309.03M 432.32M 452.21M 505.22M 586.99M 655.92M 734.53M 820.56M 768.22M 731.11M
Retained Earnings Growth - 39.90% 4.60% 11.72% 16.18% 11.74% 11.99% 11.71% -6.38% -4.83%

Highly Competitive Industry over the past 10 years

It's likely that GCO is in an industry with low barriers to entry, spurring high competition. If Gross Margins are at least satisfactory, it's likely GCO invests heavily in R&D and Sales, General & Administrative expenses.

Only $3.64 of every $100 of Revenue have been profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Net Income 6.89M 152.64M 28.81M 53.21M 81.96M 110.54M 92.65M 97.73M 94.57M 97.43M
divided by
Revenue 1.50B 1.55B 1.57B 1.79B 2.29B 2.60B 2.62B 2.86B 3.02B 2.87B
Net Profit Margin 0.46% 9.84% 1.83% 2.97% 3.58% 4.24% 3.53% 3.42% 3.13% 3.40%

Varying Pricing Power over the past 10 years

GCO has maintained substantial gross margins, suggesting that they have been able to set prices without consideration of the cost of goods sold. However, there is a substantial variation in their Gross Profit Margins from year-to-year, which indicates inconsistent performance. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

$54.67 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Gross Profit 751.22M 779.98M 795.87M 901.85M 2.29B 1.30B 1.30B 1.40B 1.44B 1.42B
divided by
Revenue 1.50B 1.55B 1.57B 1.79B 2.29B 2.60B 2.62B 2.86B 3.02B 2.87B
Gross Margin 50.01% 50.27% 50.55% 50.39% 100.00% 49.84% 49.49% 48.97% 47.76% 49.42%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

GCO spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

191.63% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Capital Expenditure 80.66M 49.42M 33.83M 29.30M 49.46M 71.74M 98.46M 103.11M 100.65M 93.97M
divided by
Net Income 6.89M 152.64M 28.81M 53.21M 81.96M 110.54M 92.65M 97.73M 94.57M 97.43M
Capital Expenditure Ratio 1,171.56% 32.38% 117.39% 55.06% 60.34% 64.90% 106.26% 105.51% 106.43% 96.45%

Inconsistent Dividend History over the past 10 years

GCO has started distributing dividends in the past couple years or has recently suspended their dividend distribution. The reliability of future distributions is unclear.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Dividend Paid 217,000.00 198,000.00 198,000.00 197,000.00 - - - - - -
divided by
Shares Outstanding 22.99M 23.91M 23.50M 23.72M 23.85M 24.04M 23.62M 23.71M 23.00M 20.17M
Dividend Paid Per Share 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 - - - - - -
Price at Year End 16.92 27.95 37.75 61.74 53.65 73.06 77.18 57.65 62.10 51.20
Dividend Yield 0.06% 0.03% 0.02% 0.01% - - - - - -

History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

GCO has some history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Shares Outstanding 22.99M 23.91M 23.50M 23.72M 23.85M 24.04M 23.62M 23.71M 23.00M 20.17M
Stock Bought Back - -3.84% 1.75% -0.91% -0.55% -0.79% 1.79% -0.39% 3.08% 14.02%
Share your thoughts about GCO

Sign Up or Log In to start contributing!


Discussion

Nothing here yet. Be the first to post!