GCO  Genesco Inc.

Exchange

NYSE

Sector

Consumer Services

Industry

Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores

Market Cap.

513.91M

Vuru Grade

63.15/100

Current Price

$25.80
+1.90 (+7.95%)

Growth Price

$63.18
Undervalued by 144.90%

Stability Price

$109.88
Undervalued by 325.88%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 7.24
  • P/S 0.17
  • P/B 0.52
  • EPS 3.56
  • Cash ROIC 5.49%
  • Cash Ratio 0.16
  • Dividend 0 / 0%
  • Avg. Vol. 498,135.00
  • Shares 19.92M
  • Market Cap. 513.91M

Company Description

Genesco Inc. engages in the retail of footwear, headwear, and sports apparel and accessories; and the wholesale of footwear. Its Journeys Group segment operates the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, and Shi by Journeys retail footwear chains, as well as involves in catalog and e-commerce operations. As of January 29, 2011, Journeys Group operated 1,017 stores, including 149 Journeys Kidz stores and 55 Shi ... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

Genesco Inc. (GCO) Soars 7.95% on October 20
Equities.com - 14 hours ago
Genesco Inc. (GCO) had a good day on the market for Friday October 20 as shares jumped 7.95% to close at $25.80. About 1.07 million shares traded hands on 4,403 trades for the day, compared with an average daily volume of 437,849 shares out of a total ...
Genesco Inc. (GCO)'s Double Bottom Pattern Points to Higher Stock Risks - BZ Weekly
Genesco Inc (GCO) Seeing Increased Action in Session - Sheridan Daily
Why Genesco Inc. Stock Climbed 26% Last Month
Motley Fool - Oct 3, 2017
However, at the midpoint of the new range, Genesco is trading at a P/E of 7.5, even after last month's rally. While headwinds in retail remain strong, managements said sales at the Journeys and Schuh chains were strong during back-to-school season, ...
First Trust Advisors LP Has $1.28 Million Holdings in Genesco Inc. (GCO) - StockNewsTimes
Citadel Advisors LLC Acquires 278134 Shares of Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) - The Ledger Gazette
Stock Indicators in Focus: Genesco Inc (GCO)
Concord Register - Oct 20, 2017
Genesco Inc (GCO) shares currently have a 7 day ADX signal of Buy. This signal is generally used to determine the market trend.
Genesco Inc (NYSE:GCO) Institutional Investors Quarterly Sentiment
WeeklyHub - Oct 16, 2017
Genesco Inc (NYSE:GCO) institutional sentiment decreased to 1.1 in 2017 Q2. Its down -0.11, from 1.21 in 2017Q1. The ratio worsened, as 85 institutional investors opened new and increased stock positions, while 77 reduced and sold stock positions in ...
98.7% Of Genesco Inc. (GCO) Is Owned By Hedge Funds - Post Analyst
Analysts take a look at Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) having this to say. - BZ Weekly
Advice by Analysts to Hold services stock: Genesco Inc. (GCO)
Street Observer (press release) - 22 hours ago
Genesco Inc. (GCO) stock price moved with surging change along with the volume 0.43 million shares in Thursday trading session.
Genesco Inc. (GCO) Forms $25.05 Double Bottom; Penn Mutual Life Insurance ...
NormanObserver.com - 22 hours ago
Genesco Inc. (GCO) formed double bottom with $24.05 target or 4.00% below today's $25.05 share price. Genesco Inc. (GCO) has $498.97 million valuation. About 40,143 shares traded. Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) has declined 26.87% since October 20, ...
Headfake or Buy the Momentum Genesco Inc. (GCO), Under Armour, Inc. (UAA)
Post Analyst - Sep 25, 2017
Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) popped in on a low volume green day. Volume on 23-Sep-17 came in at 0.36 million contracts. The daily trading volume has averaged 0.46 million shares a day in past 3 months.
Genesco Inc. (GCO) Chairman Purchases $595250.00 in Stock - The Ledger Gazette
Bank of New York Mellon Corp Cuts Position in Genesco Inc. (GCO) - Dispatch Tribunal
Currently Undervalued Or Overvalued? – Genesco Inc. (GCO), OncoSec Medical ...
Post Analyst - Oct 6, 2017
Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) attracted a lower number of shares in volume with 0.33 million contracts traded on 05-Oct-17. However, its trading capacity stayed around 0.46 million shares in normal days.
Genesco Inc. (GCO) Reaches $24.00 After 5.00% Up Move; Weiss Multi-Strategy ...
UtahHerald.com - Oct 19, 2017
The stock of Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) is a huge mover today! About 213,606 shares traded. Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) has declined 26.87% since October 19, 2016 and is downtrending.
Headed For A Crash? – Genesco Inc. (GCO), Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI)
Post Analyst - Oct 10, 2017
Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) recent drop took place on significantly more volume which surged nearly 0.48 million contracts on 09-Oct-17 versus its daily average of 0.46 million.
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for GCO to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate GCO's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$25.80 Current Price

$63.18 Growth Price (DCF)

Undervalued by 144.90%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: -500.00%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: -6.6%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$109.88 Stability Price (EPV)

Undervalued by 325.88%


Discount Rate: 15.0%

$10.56 NCA Price

Overvalued by 59.08%

$74.63 Book Price

Undervalued by 189.26%


Poor Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

GCO has been unable to consistently generate sufficient returns from its investments in buildings, projects and equipment. This could be due to poor management, lack of an economic moat or the capital intensive nature of the business.

GCO has only created $5.49 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
20132014201520162017
Free Cash Flow 51.47M 41.54M 86.65M 44.47M 67.53M
divided by
Invested Capital 997.94M 1.07B 1.06B 1.08B 1.09B
Cash ROIC 5.16% 3.87% 8.14% 4.10% 6.19%

Satisfactory Return on Equity over the past 5 years

GCO has generated adequate returns with capital that shareholders have invested. This is sufficient and implies that management performance has been good.

GCO has generated $10.81 of Earnings for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
20132014201520162017
Net Income 110.54M 92.65M 97.73M 94.57M 97.43M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 808.59M 916.19M 996.81M 955.16M 921.05M
Return on Equity 13.67% 10.11% 9.80% 9.90% 10.58%

Excellent Business Performance over the past 10 years

GCO has been able to maintain profitability in good times and bad. This could mean GCO has an extremely strong business or has the ability to scale down costs when needed. This should be a fairly resilient business, but double check for future sustainability by looking at its Risk Factors in the Annual Report.

GCO has created positive free cash flow for 9 or more of the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Free Cash Flow -56.72M 129.68M 108.27M 73.31M 95.50M 51.47M 41.54M 86.65M 44.47M 67.53M

Good Balance Sheet

GCO's Total Assets double Total Liabilities. Its financial position is adequate. Remember to check Shareholders' Equity to see if it's stable or growing. It's one of the best measures of whether a company is creating value for shareholders.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Cash 17.70M 17.67M 82.15M 55.93M 53.79M 59.80M 59.45M 112.87M 133.29M 48.30M
Current Assets 383.67M 398.12M 450.07M 513.06M 595.31M 682.27M 756.88M 847.66M 800.09M 738.17M
Total Assets 804.56M 818.03M 863.65M 961.08M 1.24B 1.33B 1.44B 1.58B 1.54B 1.45B
Current Liabilities 145.57M 138.98M 169.66M 234.36M 304.46M 276.05M 305.58M 405.92M 323.62M 309.39M
Total Liabilities 383.14M 371.09M 281.34M 336.76M 521.90M 525.20M 523.09M 586.28M 586.33M 527.85M
Stockholder' Equity 421.42M 446.93M 582.31M 624.32M 715.36M 808.59M 916.19M 996.81M 955.16M 921.05M
Current Ratio 2.64 2.86 2.65 2.19 1.96 2.47 2.48 2.09 2.47 2.39
TL-to-TA 0.48 0.45 0.33 0.35 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.36

Consistent Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

GCO has consistently retained profits. This may put GCO in a strong position to invest for the future, by buying new machinery, investing in R&D or a number of other options. By effectively using these earnings, GCO can greatly improve their long-term economic picture.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Retained Earnings 309.03M 432.32M 452.21M 505.22M 586.99M 655.92M 734.53M 820.56M 768.22M 731.11M
Retained Earnings Growth - 39.90% 4.60% 11.72% 16.18% 11.74% 11.99% 11.71% -6.38% -4.83%

Highly Competitive Industry over the past 10 years

It's likely that GCO is in an industry with low barriers to entry, spurring high competition. If Gross Margins are at least satisfactory, it's likely GCO invests heavily in R&D and Sales, General & Administrative expenses.

Only $3.64 of every $100 of Revenue have been profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Net Income 6.89M 152.64M 28.81M 53.21M 81.96M 110.54M 92.65M 97.73M 94.57M 97.43M
divided by
Revenue 1.50B 1.55B 1.57B 1.79B 2.29B 2.60B 2.62B 2.86B 3.02B 2.87B
Net Profit Margin 0.46% 9.84% 1.83% 2.97% 3.58% 4.24% 3.53% 3.42% 3.13% 3.40%

Varying Pricing Power over the past 10 years

GCO has maintained substantial gross margins, suggesting that they have been able to set prices without consideration of the cost of goods sold. However, there is a substantial variation in their Gross Profit Margins from year-to-year, which indicates inconsistent performance. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

$54.67 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Gross Profit 751.22M 779.98M 795.87M 901.85M 2.29B 1.30B 1.30B 1.40B 1.44B 1.42B
divided by
Revenue 1.50B 1.55B 1.57B 1.79B 2.29B 2.60B 2.62B 2.86B 3.02B 2.87B
Gross Margin 50.01% 50.27% 50.55% 50.39% 100.00% 49.84% 49.49% 48.97% 47.76% 49.42%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

GCO spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

191.63% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Capital Expenditure 80.66M 49.42M 33.83M 29.30M 49.46M 71.74M 98.46M 103.11M 100.65M 93.97M
divided by
Net Income 6.89M 152.64M 28.81M 53.21M 81.96M 110.54M 92.65M 97.73M 94.57M 97.43M
Capital Expenditure Ratio 1,171.56% 32.38% 117.39% 55.06% 60.34% 64.90% 106.26% 105.51% 106.43% 96.45%

Inconsistent Dividend History over the past 10 years

GCO has started distributing dividends in the past couple years or has recently suspended their dividend distribution. The reliability of future distributions is unclear.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Dividend Paid 217,000.00 198,000.00 198,000.00 197,000.00 - - - - - -
divided by
Shares Outstanding 22.99M 23.91M 23.50M 23.72M 23.85M 24.04M 23.62M 23.71M 23.00M 20.17M
Dividend Paid Per Share 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 - - - - - -
Price at Year End 16.92 27.95 37.75 61.74 53.65 73.06 77.18 57.65 62.10 51.20
Dividend Yield 0.06% 0.03% 0.02% 0.01% - - - - - -

History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

GCO has some history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Shares Outstanding 22.99M 23.91M 23.50M 23.72M 23.85M 24.04M 23.62M 23.71M 23.00M 20.17M
Stock Bought Back - -3.84% 1.75% -0.91% -0.55% -0.79% 1.79% -0.39% 3.08% 14.02%
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