NTRI  Nutrisystem Inc

Exchange

NASDAQ

Sector

Consumer Services

Industry

Catalog/Specialty Distribution

Market Cap.

1.58B

Vuru Grade

53.33/100

Current Price

$53.00
+0.95 (+1.83%)

Growth Price

$7.95
Overvalued by 84.99%

Stability Price

$14.34
Overvalued by 72.95%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 32.84
  • P/S 2.42
  • P/B 12.67
  • EPS 1.61
  • Cash ROIC 64.48%
  • Cash Ratio 0.58
  • Dividend 0.7 / 1.32%
  • Avg. Vol. 489,903.00
  • Shares 29.81M
  • Market Cap. 1.58B

Company Description

Nutrisystem, Inc. provides weight management products and services primarily in the United States and Canada. The company's weight management program principally comprises a pre-packaged food program, online tools, and counseling. It offers weight-loss programs based on nutritious, portion-controlled, and lower Glycemic Index prepared meals. The company also provides monthly food packages comprisi... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

Nutrisystem Vs. Weight Watchers - Who Will Be The Biggest Gainer?
Seeking Alpha - Sep 19, 2017
These results are beginning to become the norm for Nutrisystem, as management remains very confident in its growth strategy.
Risk Malaise Alert in Option Market: NutriSystem Inc Implied Price Swing Hits ...
CML News - 6 hours ago
Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that NutriSystem Inc (NASDAQ:NTRI) risk is actually priced pretty low by the option market as of right now.
Nutrisystem's Stock Is Increasing While Customers Shrink
Seeking Alpha - Aug 19, 2017
When I looked at Nutrisystem's (NTRI) analysis section on Seeking Alpha, I was surprised to see many articles with a negative view for the stock.
Why Shares of NutriSystem Inc. Plunged 16% Today
Motley Fool - Jul 27, 2017
Shares of weight-loss company NutriSystem Inc. (NASDAQ:NTRI) fell as much as 15.6% in trading Thursday after reporting second-quarter earnings.
NutriSystem Inc (NTRI) Position Cut by Elk Creek Partners LLC
The Ledger Gazette - 6 hours ago
NutriSystem logo Elk Creek Partners LLC cut its stake in shares of NutriSystem Inc (NASDAQ:NTRI) by 3.4% in the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the SEC.
Nutrisystem, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTRI) Needle Ticks 4.23% For the Week - Concord Register
Analysts Anticipate NutriSystem Inc (NTRI) Will Announce Earnings of $0.45 Per ... - StockNewsTimes
Drop 50 Now: Nutrisystem's Advertising Backed By Shoddy Science
Seeking Alpha - Jun 12, 2017
We believe the real reason for Nutrisystem's recent momentum is the 2013 expiration of a 1993 FTC consent decree; since expiration, we believe the company has returned to its old tricks. We believe Nutrisystem is potentially in violation of FTC Act ...
NutriSystem Inc (NTRI) Ex-Dividend Date Scheduled for August 03, 2017
Nasdaq - Aug 2, 2017
NutriSystem Inc ( NTRI ) will begin trading ex-dividend on August 03, 2017. A cash dividend payment of $0.175 per share is scheduled to be paid on August 17, 2017.
Nutrisystem, Inc. (NasdaqGS:NTRI), Kinaxis Inc. (TSX:KXS): How Do These Stocks ...
The Business Union - 8 hours ago
Checking in on some valuation rankings, Nutrisystem, Inc. (NasdaqGS:NTRI) has a Value Composite score of 62. Developed by James O'Shaughnessy, the VC score uses five valuation ratios.
NutriSystem Inc (NTRI) Moves Lower on Volume Spike for September 15
Equities.com - Sep 15, 2017
NutriSystem Inc (NTRI) traded on unusually high volume on Sep. 15, as the stock lost 1.07% to close at $50.85. On the day, NutriSystem Inc saw 1.01 million shares trade hands on 7,924 trades. Considering that the stock averages only a daily volume of ...
Traders Take Note: NutriSystem Inc (NASDAQ:NTRI) Stock Drops, Weakness in ... - CML News
NutriSystem Inc (NTRI) Insider Sells $1574424.67 in Stock - The Ledger Gazette
Are Investors Buying or Selling Nutrisystem, Inc. (NTRI), and What Should You Do?
NY Stock News - Sep 18, 2017
Recent trading patterns in the stock of Nutrisystem, Inc., NTRI have investors on high alert. Performance is ultimately what matters to investors, and it's worth taking a look at the data to get a sense of where (NTRI) might be headed in the future.
NutriSystem Inc (NASDAQ:NTRI) Sees Heavy Trading Volume with 1005K Shares ... - Modern Readers
NutriSystem Inc (NTRI) Shares Sold by Elk Creek Partners LLC - The Ledger Gazette
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for NTRI to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate NTRI's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$53.00 Current Price

$7.95 Growth Price (DCF)

Overvalued by 84.99%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: 44.77%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: -12.8%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$14.34 Stability Price (EPV)

Overvalued by 72.95%


Discount Rate: 15.0%

$1.39 NCA Price

Overvalued by 97.37%

$21.68 Book Price

Overvalued by 59.09%


Varying Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

NTRI has efficiently invested its financial resources in buildings, projects, and equipment, resulting in strong returns. However, there is a substantial variation in their Cash ROIC from year-to-year. This company may have unreliable free cash flow or operates in a business where invested capital costs increase substantially on a sporadic basis. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

NTRI has created $64.48 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 13.19M 27.77M 24.54M 31.17M 35.84M
divided by
Invested Capital 44.24M 28.95M 28.98M 56.70M 62.91M
Cash ROIC 29.81% 95.92% 84.69% 54.97% 56.98%

Excellent Return on Equity over the past 5 years

Over the past 5 years, NTRI has generated strong profits with money shareholders have invested. This is considered one of the best indicators of quality management. Beware of extremely high Return on Equity (> 50%) as this is often unsustainable.

NTRI has generated $23.83 of Earnings for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Net Income -2.81M 7.37M 19.31M 26.14M 35.47M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 60.11M 52.16M 55.52M 69.93M 94.52M
Return on Equity -4.67% 14.13% 34.79% 37.39% 37.52%

Excellent Business Performance over the past 10 years

NTRI has been able to maintain profitability in good times and bad. This could mean NTRI has an extremely strong business or has the ability to scale down costs when needed. This should be a fairly resilient business, but double check for future sustainability by looking at its Risk Factors in the Annual Report.

NTRI has created positive free cash flow for 9 or more of the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 89.52M 80.67M 49.11M 47.02M 39.29M 13.19M 27.77M 24.54M 31.17M 35.84M

Good Balance Sheet

NTRI's Total Assets double Total Liabilities. Its financial position is adequate. Remember to check Shareholders' Equity to see if it's stable or growing. It's one of the best measures of whether a company is creating value for shareholders.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Cash 42.45M 38.31M 62.52M 41.22M 57.61M 19.39M 26.32M 29.25M 15.51M 33.50M
Current Assets 159.40M 120.80M 143.62M 113.68M 116.90M 66.18M 69.28M 76.50M 76.88M 101.29M
Total Assets 198.56M 159.47M 170.79M 149.95M 150.35M 98.41M 102.78M 109.89M 129.89M 154.24M
Current Liabilities 56.05M 42.35M 40.27M 39.66M 40.66M 34.77M 47.51M 51.67M 57.68M 57.84M
Total Liabilities 57.06M 43.65M 41.82M 74.98M 75.40M 38.30M 50.63M 54.38M 59.97M 59.72M
Stockholder' Equity 141.50M 115.83M 128.96M 74.98M 74.96M 60.11M 52.16M 55.52M 69.93M 94.52M
Current Ratio 2.84 2.85 3.57 2.87 2.87 1.90 1.46 1.48 1.33 1.75
TL-to-TA 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.50 0.50 0.39 0.49 0.49 0.46 0.39

Low or No Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

NTRI has either been retaining a small amount of their earnings or has done so inconsistently. A lack of consistency could be due to NTRI operating at a loss or them having such a strong economic moat they feel comfortable spending profits on growth. Be wary of future prospects and if applicable, inspect the moat's sustainability.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Retained Earnings 141.45M 115.77M 122.50M 71.99M 64.93M 42.25M 29.61M 28.55M 34.19M 48.80M
Retained Earnings Growth - -18.16% 5.81% -41.23% -9.81% -34.92% -29.92% -3.58% 19.75% 42.72%

Competitive Industry over the past 10 years

NTRI is likely operating in an industry with medium to low barriers to entry. This may mean that NTRI doesn't have a characteristic that's hard to replicate, such as exclusive distribution, branding or the ability to keep costs low. If Gross Margins are at least satisfactory, it's likely that NTRI invests heavily in R&D and Sales, General & Administrative expenses.

Only $5.35 of every $100 of Revenue have been profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Net Income 104.15M 46.25M 28.79M 33.64M 12.26M -2.81M 7.37M 19.31M 26.14M 35.47M
divided by
Revenue 776.77M 687.74M 527.73M 509.52M 401.34M 396.88M 358.09M 403.08M 462.61M 545.45M
Net Profit Margin 13.41% 6.73% 5.46% 6.60% 3.06% -0.71% 2.06% 4.79% 5.65% 6.50%

Strong Pricing Power over the past 10 years

NTRI has maintained substantial gross margins, suggesting that they have been able to set prices without consideration of the cost of goods sold. This potentially leaves flexibility in inflationary environments to raise prices on consumers and maintain profitability.

$51.40 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Gross Profit 412.89M 349.08M 284.04M 284.71M 202.93M 183.78M 173.88M 204.03M 238.03M 288.46M
divided by
Revenue 776.77M 687.74M 527.73M 509.52M 401.34M 396.88M 358.09M 403.08M 462.61M 545.45M
Gross Margin 53.16% 50.76% 53.82% 55.88% 50.56% 46.31% 48.56% 50.62% 51.45% 52.88%

Medium Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

NTRI has used a reasonable amount of their financial resources to invest in facilities and equipment required to produce its goods and services. This isn't perfect, but it shouldn't be an area of concern unless this number is strongly trending upwards.

47.96% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Capital Expenditure 18.70M 11.62M 8.35M 19.59M 8.04M 9.60M 7.61M 8.27M - 14.76M
divided by
Net Income 104.15M 46.25M 28.79M 33.64M 12.26M -2.81M 7.37M 19.31M 26.14M 35.47M
Capital Expenditure Ratio 17.96% 25.13% 29.01% 58.25% 65.58% -342.28% 103.31% 42.80% - 41.60%

Strong Dividend History over the past 10 years

NTRI has consistently distributed a dividend for the past 9 years. This suggests NTRI is established and will likely continue to distribute its dividend for the foreseeable future.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Dividend Paid - 16.25M 21.42M 20.66M 19.32M 19.87M 20.01M 20.37M 20.50M 20.86M
divided by
Shares Outstanding 35.17M 31.17M 29.77M 28.69M 27.33M 27.50M 28.29M 28.79M 29.18M 29.55M
Dividend Paid Per Share - 0.52 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.72 0.71 0.71 0.70 0.71
Price at Year End 23.79 12.54 28.20 20.28 12.93 7.87 16.81 19.58 21.70 34.65
Dividend Yield - 4.16% 2.55% 3.55% 5.47% 9.18% 4.21% 3.61% 3.24% 2.04%

History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

NTRI has some history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Shares Outstanding 35.17M 31.17M 29.77M 28.69M 27.33M 27.50M 28.29M 28.79M 29.18M 29.55M
Stock Bought Back - 12.83% 4.71% 3.78% 4.98% -0.63% -2.79% -1.74% -1.33% -1.25%
Share your thoughts about NTRI

Sign Up or Log In to start contributing!


Discussion

Nothing here yet. Be the first to post!