PCAR  Paccar Inc.

Exchange

NASDAQ

Sector

Capital Goods

Industry

Auto Manufacturing

Market Cap.

23.44B

Vuru Grade

26.50/100

Current Price

$66.73
+0.32 (+0.48%)

Growth Price

$24.02
Overvalued by 64.00%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 16.49
  • P/S 1.37
  • P/B 3.3
  • EPS 4.05
  • Cash ROIC 3.21%
  • Cash Ratio 0.52
  • Dividend 0.96 / 1.47%
  • Avg. Vol. 2.00M
  • Shares 351.27M
  • Market Cap. 23.44B

Company Description

PACCAR Inc, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and distributes light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks and related aftermarket parts primarily in the United States and Europe. It markets its heavy-duty diesel trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. The company sells its products for use in over-the-road and off-highway hauling of freight, petroleum, wood produc... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

PACCAR Inc. Slows Down, but Keeps Driving Forward
Motley Fool - Apr 28, 2017
Truck maker PACCAR Inc. (NASDAQ:PCAR) reported first quarter results on April 25, and announced that, for yet another quarter, revenue, adjusted earnings, and truck deliveries came in lower than the year before.
Jefferies Group Comments on PACCAR Inc's Q2 2017 Earnings (PCAR) - The Cerbat Gem
PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ:PCAR) Earning Analysis for today - The News Journal
Paccar Inc. Q1 Profit Falls 11%
Nasdaq - Apr 25, 2017
(RTTNews.com) - Paccar Inc. ( PCAR ) released earnings for first quarter that decreased from last year. The company said its earnings declined to $310.3 million, or $0.88 per share.
Form 8-K PACCAR INC For: Apr 25
StreetInsider.com - Apr 25, 2017
On April 25, 2017 PACCAR Inc (the “Registrant”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2017 and announcing that it would hold a conference call with securities analysts to discuss first quarter 2017 earnings to ...
PACCAR Increases Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend - Business Wire (press release)
Profits for Paccar Recover as Truck Demand Picks Up - Trucks.com
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Rises 3% for April 24
Equities.com - Apr 24, 2017
Among the biggest risers on the S&P 500 on Monday April 24 was PACCAR Inc ($PCAR), popping some 3% to a price of $67.73 a share with some 2.86 million shares trading hands.
Technical Indicator Review on Shares of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)
Baxter Review - 8 hours ago
When applying indicators for technical analysis, traders and investors might want to examine the ATR or Average True Range. The current 14-day ATR for PACCAR Inc (PCAR) is currently sitting at 1.36. The ATR basically measures the volatility of a stock ...
PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ:PCAR) reported earnings of $0.88 per share meeting Walls ...
Market Exclusive - Apr 25, 2017
PACCAR Inc (PACCAR) is a technology company. The Company's segments include Truck, Parts and Financial Services. The Truck segment includes the design, manufacture and distribution of light-, medium- and heavy-duty commercial trucks.
PACCAR (PCAR) Q1 Earnings on Par, Sales Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance
The Case for and Against PACCAR Inc (PCAR)
StockNewsJournal - Apr 19, 2017
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) is an interesting player in the Consumer Goods space, with a focus on Trucks & Other Vehicles. The stock has been active on the tape, currently trading at $64.20, down from yesterday's close by -1.74%.
Can PACCAR (PCAR) Spring a Surprise this Earnings Season? - Yahoo Finance
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) PT Raised to $59.00 - The Cerbat Gem
These stock's might change the kismet of Investors: PACCAR Inc (PCAR), Realty ...
StockNewsJournal - Apr 25, 2017
PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ:PCAR) market capitalization at present is $23.78B at the rate of $67.73 a share. The firm's price-to-sales ratio was noted 1.36 in contrast with an overall industry average of 1.29.
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Exposed Via Its Technical Chart
NY Stock News - Apr 24, 2017
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) has been having a set of eventful trading activity and it is clear from an examination of the charts that traders are now fully aware of the company's key metrics.
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Dips 2.78% for April 12
Equities.com - Apr 12, 2017
Among the S&P 500's biggest fallers on Wednesday April 12 was PACCAR Inc (PCAR). The stock experienced a 2.78% decline to $65.65 with 1.84 million shares changing hands.
Credit Suisse Group AG Analysts Give PACCAR Inc (PCAR) a $68.00 Price Target - The Cerbat Gem
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Position Maintained by Jacobs & Co. CA - Markets Daily
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for PCAR to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate PCAR's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$66.73 Current Price

$24.02 Growth Price (DCF)

Overvalued by 64.00%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: 49.04%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: -6.9%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$57.92 Book Price

Overvalued by 13.21%


Poor Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

PCAR has been unable to consistently generate sufficient returns from its investments in buildings, projects and equipment. This could be due to poor management, lack of an economic moat or the capital intensive nature of the business.

PCAR has only created $3.21 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow -284.40M 502.90M 586.30M 830.80M 335.90M
divided by
Invested Capital 10.36B 12.43B 11.93B 11.93B 11.76B
Cash ROIC -2.75% 4.05% 4.91% 6.97% 2.86%

Excellent Return on Equity over the past 5 years

Over the past 5 years, PCAR has generated strong profits with money shareholders have invested. This is considered one of the best indicators of quality management. Beware of extremely high Return on Equity (> 50%) as this is often unsustainable.

PCAR has generated $17.52 of Earnings for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Net Income 1.11B 1.17B 1.36B 1.60B 521.70M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 5.85B 6.63B 6.75B 6.94B 6.78B
Return on Equity 19.01% 17.66% 20.12% 23.11% 7.70%

Good Business Performance over the past 10 years

It's likely PCAR has been unable to maintain profitability in tough economic times, making it a somewhat cyclical business. The other possibility is PCAR has expended significant capital on items such as property, plant and equipment in specific years. Look for correlations.

PCAR has created positive free cash flow for 7 or 8 of the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 788.00M -245.10M 1.25B 1.38B 1.25B -284.40M 502.90M 586.30M 830.80M 335.90M

Weak Balance Sheet

PCAR's financial position is not ideal. The key is to check whether PCAR is using debt to fuel its growth and the sustainability of that tendency. Highly capital intensive businesses (see Economic Moat) follow this route, which can deeply impact the future prospects of the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Cash 2.64B 2.13B 2.13B 2.49B 3.02B 2.47B 3.02B 3.01B 3.46B 3.06B
Current Assets 13.07B 11.74B 10.04B 9.93B 4.95B 12.78B 13.97B 14.32B 14.69B 4.87B
Total Assets 17.23B 16.25B 14.57B 14.23B 17.17B 18.63B 20.73B 20.62B 21.11B 21.65B
Current Liabilities 6.87B 5.65B 7.61B 7.08B 10.08B 5.80B 5.28B 5.68B 5.72B 5.83B
Total Liabilities 12.22B 11.40B 9.47B 8.88B 11.81B 12.78B 14.09B 13.87B 14.17B 13.86B
Stockholder' Equity 5.01B 4.85B 5.10B 5.36B 5.36B 5.85B 6.63B 6.75B 6.94B 6.78B
Current Ratio 1.90 2.08 1.32 1.40 0.49 2.20 2.64 2.52 2.57 0.84
TL-to-TA 0.71 0.70 0.65 0.62 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.64

Consistent Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

PCAR has consistently retained profits. This may put PCAR in a strong position to invest for the future, by buying new machinery, investing in R&D or a number of other options. By effectively using these earnings, PCAR can greatly improve their long-term economic picture.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Retained Earnings 4.26B 4.72B 4.64B 4.85B 5.17B 5.60B 6.17B 6.86B 7.54B 7.48B
Retained Earnings Growth - 10.89% -1.78% 4.43% 6.78% 8.15% 10.16% 11.33% 9.81% -0.69%

Competitive Industry over the past 10 years

PCAR is likely operating in an industry with medium to low barriers to entry. This may mean that PCAR doesn't have a characteristic that's hard to replicate, such as exclusive distribution, branding or the ability to keep costs low. If Gross Margins are at least satisfactory, it's likely that PCAR invests heavily in R&D and Sales, General & Administrative expenses.

Only $5.90 of every $100 of Revenue have been profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Net Income 1.23B 1.02B 111.90M 457.60M 1.04B 1.11B 1.17B 1.36B 1.60B 521.70M
divided by
Revenue 15.22B 14.97B 8.09B 10.29B 16.36B 17.05B 17.12B 19.00B 19.12B 17.03B
Net Profit Margin 8.06% 6.80% 1.38% 4.45% 6.37% 6.52% 6.84% 7.15% 8.39% 3.06%

Inconsistent Gross Profit Margins over the past 10 years

PCAR has good gross profit margins, however inconsistency of these margins is a cause for concern. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

$27.81 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Gross Profit 3.30B 3.24B 1.60B 2.09B 16.07B 3.14B 3.22B 3.52B 3.82B 3.52B
divided by
Revenue 15.22B 14.97B 8.09B 10.29B 16.36B 17.05B 17.12B 19.00B 19.12B 17.03B
Gross Margin 21.71% 21.61% 19.82% 20.35% 98.24% 18.43% 18.82% 18.51% 20.00% 20.64%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

PCAR spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

135.86% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Capital Expenditure 1.27B 1.55B 127.70M 168.40M 340.70M 1.80B 1.87B 1.54B 1.73B 1.96B
divided by
Net Income 1.23B 1.02B 111.90M 457.60M 1.04B 1.11B 1.17B 1.36B 1.60B 521.70M
Capital Expenditure Ratio 103.27% 152.27% 114.12% 36.80% 32.69% 162.23% 159.89% 113.14% 107.56% 376.63%

Very Strong Dividend History over the past 10 years

PCAR has consistently distributed a dividend for at least the past 10 years. Such a long dividend history suggests PCAR is very established in its market and that its dividend distribution is likely to continue for a significant period of time.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Dividend Paid 736.70M 629.20M 232.10M 251.70M 217.40M 809.50M 283.10M 623.80M 680.50M 829.30M
divided by
Shares Outstanding 373.30M 365.90M 364.90M 366.20M 364.40M 355.80M 355.20M 356.10M 355.60M 351.80M
Dividend Paid Per Share 1.97 1.72 0.64 0.69 0.60 2.28 0.80 1.75 1.91 2.36
Price at Year End 52.10 26.67 35.56 56.33 37.31 44.43 58.84 68.80 48.02 63.90
Dividend Yield 3.79% 6.45% 1.79% 1.22% 1.60% 5.12% 1.35% 2.55% 3.99% 3.69%

Strong History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

PCAR has a strong history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Shares Outstanding 373.30M 365.90M 364.90M 366.20M 364.40M 355.80M 355.20M 356.10M 355.60M 351.80M
Stock Bought Back - 2.02% 0.27% -0.35% 0.49% 2.42% 0.17% -0.25% 0.14% 1.08%
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