SCVL  Shoe Carnival Inc.

Exchange

NASDAQ

Sector

Consumer Services

Industry

Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores

Market Cap.

328.19M

Vuru Grade

64.12/100

Current Price

$19.52
-1.18 (-5.70%)

Growth Price

$45.36
Undervalued by 132.38%

Stability Price

$33.10
Undervalued by 69.57%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 16.61
  • P/S 0.35
  • P/B 1.14
  • EPS 1.17
  • Cash ROIC 6.59%
  • Cash Ratio 0.73
  • Dividend 0.28 / 1.43 %
  • Avg. Vol. 154,373.00
  • Shares 16.81M
  • Market Cap. 328.19M

Company Description

Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a footwear retailer. Its stores offer dress and casual shoes, sandals, and boots, as well as a range of athletic shoes, such as running, basketball, and fitness shoes for men, women, children, and athletics. The company also provides accessory items, including handbags, shoe care items, and socks. It owns various registered trademark... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

Profits for Popular Shoe Retailers Journeys & Shoe Carnival Are Tumbling ...
Footwear News - May 25, 2017
Shoe Carnival Inc. and Genesco Inc. - owners of family footwear retailer Journeys - both reported disappointing first-quarter results this week.
Why Shoe Carnival, Inc. Stock Tumbled Today
Motley Fool - May 3, 2017
As a result of the weak performance, Shoe Carnival lowered its guidance for the full year. Management now sees revenue for 2017 at $1.002 billion to $1.018 billion against a previous expectation of $1.028 billion to $1.04 billion, while earnings per ...
Shoe Carnival Lowers Outlook On Weak Q1 - SGB Media (press release) (subscription) (blog)
Shoe Carnival Inc. (SCVL) Plunges 11.95% on May 03 - Equities.com
Shoe Carnival Inc. (SCVL) Plunges 5.7% on May 29
Equities.com - 13 hours ago
Shoe Carnival Inc. (SCVL) had a rough trading day for Monday May 29 as shares tumbled 5.7%, or a loss of $-1.18 per share, to close at $19.52.
A Look Under the Hood at Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NasdaqGS:SCVL)'s Profitability - Lenox Ledger
Shoe Carnival Profit Drops in Q1 - Inside INdiana Business
Shoe Carnival: Bias Is To The Downside
Seeking Alpha - Sep 19, 2016
Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ:SCVL) has been on a tear of late, bucking the trend of poorly performing retail stocks that has dominated the sector in 2016.
University Town Center properties lose sandwich shop, shoe store
Bradenton Herald - Mar 6, 2017
In Shoe Carnival Inc.'s third-quarter earnings call from the most recent fiscal year, President and CEO of Shoe Carnival Inc. Cliff Sifford said the company expected to open four stores but also close four stores in the fourth quarter. Sifford did not ...
Focusing the Lens On This Dividend Stock: Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NasdaqGS:SCVL)
Lenox Ledger - 18 hours ago
Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NasdaqGS:SCVL) currently has a 10 year dividend growth rate of -0.93715. This number is calculated using the geometric average which provides the typical value of dividend growth over the specified period using the product of their ...
Shoe Carnival Updates Full Fiscal Year 2016 Financial Guidance
Yahoo Finance - Jan 9, 2017
Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL), a leading retailer of moderately priced footwear and accessories, today announced updated sales and earnings guidance for its fiscal 2016 ending January 28, 2017.
Shoe Carnival to Report First Quarter Fiscal 2017 Financial Results on May 24 ...
Business Wire (press release) - May 17, 2017
EVANSVILLE, Ind.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Shoe Carnival, Inc. (Nasdaq: SCVL), a leading retailer of moderately priced footwear and accessories, today announced first quarter fiscal year 2017 earnings results will be released on Wednesday, May 24, 2017, after ...
The Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL) Issues FY18 Earnings Guidance - BangaloreWeekly
Shoe Carnival's Revenues Edge Up Slightly, Profits Top Expectations
Footwear News - Mar 23, 2017
Shoe Carnival Inc. today reported fourth-quarter earnings that topped expectations while sales were roughly in line. The Evansville, Ind.
Shoe Carnival's (SCVL) CEO Cliff Sifford on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call ... - Seeking Alpha
Shoe Carnival Planning Bigger Athletic Business - SGB Media (press release) (subscription) (blog)
Shoe Carnival Inc. (SCVL) Settles Into New 52-Week Low on May 23 Session
Equities.com - May 23, 2017
Shares of Shoe Carnival Inc. (SCVL) sank into a new 52-week low yesterday, and could be a company to watch at the open. The company's stock fell to as low as $18.89 yesterday after opening at $19.80.
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for SCVL to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate SCVL's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$19.52 Current Price

$45.36 Growth Price (DCF)

Undervalued by 132.38%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: -105.47%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: 12.4%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$33.10 Stability Price (EPV)

Undervalued by 69.57%


Discount Rate: 15.0%

$12.62 NCA Price

Overvalued by 35.36%

$22.57 Book Price

Undervalued by 15.63%


Poor Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

SCVL has been unable to consistently generate sufficient returns from its investments in buildings, projects and equipment. This could be due to poor management, lack of an economic moat or the capital intensive nature of the business.

SCVL has only created $6.59 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
20132014201520162017
Free Cash Flow -127,000.00 7.65M 24.11M 30.65M 41.96M
divided by
Invested Capital 279.42M 310.94M 320.52M 324.35M 309.24M
Cash ROIC -0.05% 2.46% 7.52% 9.45% 13.57%

Poor Return on Equity over the past 5 years

SCVL has shown an inability to deliver strong results for shareholders. This could be due to poor management, SCVL operating in a highly competitive industry, or having a weak business in general.

SCVL has only generated $8.41 of Earnings for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
20132014201520162017
Net Income 29.34M 26.87M 25.53M 28.77M 23.52M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 292.37M 316.87M 331.20M 339.80M 318.88M
Return on Equity 10.03% 8.48% 7.71% 8.47% 7.37%

Excellent Business Performance over the past 10 years

SCVL has been able to maintain profitability in good times and bad. This could mean SCVL has an extremely strong business or has the ability to scale down costs when needed. This should be a fairly resilient business, but double check for future sustainability by looking at its Risk Factors in the Annual Report.

SCVL has created positive free cash flow for 9 or more of the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Free Cash Flow 1.45M 13.87M 18.10M 15.01M 9.62M -127,000.00 7.65M 24.11M 30.65M 41.96M

Good Balance Sheet

SCVL's Total Assets double Total Liabilities. Its financial position is adequate. Remember to check Shareholders' Equity to see if it's stable or growing. It's one of the best measures of whether a company is creating value for shareholders.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Cash 9.18M 24.82M 44.17M 60.19M 70.60M 45.76M 48.25M 61.38M 68.81M 62.94M
Current Assets 219.93M 222.86M 248.10M 281.35M 316.26M 328.02M 342.52M 359.13M 370.08M 351.75M
Total Assets 291.62M 293.07M 311.64M 345.15M 386.56M 407.20M 436.85M 465.02M 481.09M 458.48M
Current Liabilities 78.48M 71.92M 71.59M 70.68M 75.76M 82.02M 77.66M 83.12M 87.93M 86.30M
Total Liabilities 95.00M 88.44M 89.81M 90.80M 102.88M 114.83M 119.98M 133.82M 141.29M 139.60M
Stockholder' Equity 196.61M 204.64M 221.83M 254.34M 283.68M 292.37M 316.87M 331.20M 339.80M 318.88M
Current Ratio 2.80 3.10 3.47 3.98 4.17 4.00 4.41 4.32 4.21 4.08
TL-to-TA 0.33 0.30 0.29 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.29 0.29 0.30

Consistent Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

SCVL has consistently retained profits. This may put SCVL in a strong position to invest for the future, by buying new machinery, investing in R&D or a number of other options. By effectively using these earnings, SCVL can greatly improve their long-term economic picture.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Retained Earnings 148.55M 153.87M 169.03M 195.85M 222.24M 228.11M 250.07M 270.69M 294.31M 312.64M
Retained Earnings Growth - 3.58% 9.86% 15.87% 13.47% 2.64% 9.63% 8.24% 8.73% 6.23%

Highly Competitive Industry over the past 10 years

It's likely that SCVL is in an industry with low barriers to entry, spurring high competition. If Gross Margins are at least satisfactory, it's likely SCVL invests heavily in R&D and Sales, General & Administrative expenses.

Only $2.65 of every $100 of Revenue have been profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Net Income 12.81M 5.32M 15.17M 26.82M 26.38M 29.34M 26.87M 25.53M 28.77M 23.52M
divided by
Revenue 658.68M 647.57M 682.42M 739.19M 762.53M 855.00M 884.79M 940.16M 983.97M 1.00B
Net Profit Margin 1.94% 0.82% 2.22% 3.63% 3.46% 3.43% 3.04% 2.72% 2.92% 2.35%

Inconsistent Gross Profit Margins over the past 10 years

SCVL has good gross profit margins, however inconsistency of these margins is a cause for concern. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

$36.04 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Gross Profit 185.85M 174.33M 193.61M 221.54M 762.53M 257.48M 259.32M 273.68M 290.52M 289.24M
divided by
Revenue 658.68M 647.57M 682.42M 739.19M 762.53M 855.00M 884.79M 940.16M 983.97M 1.00B
Gross Margin 28.22% 26.92% 28.37% 29.97% 100.00% 30.11% 29.31% 29.11% 29.52% 28.89%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

SCVL spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

121.01% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Capital Expenditure 18.43M 18.20M 9.79M 14.41M 21.26M 25.98M 30.97M 33.54M 27.90M 21.83M
divided by
Net Income 12.81M 5.32M 15.17M 26.82M 26.38M 29.34M 26.87M 25.53M 28.77M 23.52M
Capital Expenditure Ratio 143.94% 342.24% 64.58% 53.73% 80.59% 88.54% 115.24% 131.40% 96.99% 92.83%

No Dividend History over the past 10 years

SCVL has never distributed dividends or has recently suspended their dividend distribution.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Dividend Paid - - - - - - - - - -
divided by
Shares Outstanding 13.16M 12.49M 12.66M 13.06M 13.13M 19.97M 19.95M 19.79M 19.43M 18.02M
Dividend Paid Per Share - - - - - - - - - -
Price at Year End 9.50 20.41 26.97 25.70 19.67 29.03 26.04 23.27 26.98 22.84
Dividend Yield - - - - - - - - - -

History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

SCVL has some history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Shares Outstanding 13.16M 12.49M 12.66M 13.06M 13.13M 19.97M 19.95M 19.79M 19.43M 18.02M
Stock Bought Back - 5.33% -1.33% -3.06% -0.53% -34.26% 0.13% 0.79% 1.87% 7.80%
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