SCVL  Shoe Carnival Inc.

Exchange

NASDAQ

Sector

Consumer Services

Industry

Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores

Market Cap.

424.41M

Vuru Grade

59.71/100

Current Price

$24.38
+0.10 (+0.41%)

Growth Price

$32.80
Undervalued by 34.52%

Stability Price

$66.59
Undervalued by 173.12%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 19.05
  • P/S 0.42
  • P/B 1.33
  • EPS 1.28
  • Cash ROIC 4.68%
  • Cash Ratio 0.78
  • Dividend 0.28 / 1.17 %
  • Avg. Vol. 111,334.00
  • Shares 19.43M
  • Market Cap. 424.41M

Company Description

Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a footwear retailer. Its stores offer dress and casual shoes, sandals, and boots, as well as a range of athletic shoes, such as running, basketball, and fitness shoes for men, women, children, and athletics. The company also provides accessory items, including handbags, shoe care items, and socks. It owns various registered trademark... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

Stock Returns: Shoe Carnival Inc (NASDAQ:SCVL) versus Tilly's Inc (NYSE:TLYS)
CML News - 10 hours ago
This is a snapshot to compare the stock returns for Shoe Carnival Inc (NASDAQ:SCVL) versus Tilly's Inc (NYSE:TLYS) . The stock return points we compare look at the last three-months, six-months and twelve-months.
FY2018 Earnings Estimate for Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL) Issued By Jefferies Group - The Cerbat Gem
Shoe Carnival Inc. (SCVL) Moves Higher on Volume Spike for March 27 - Equities.com
Shoe Carnival Planning Bigger Athletic Business
SGB Media (press release) (subscription) (blog) - Mar 24, 2017
While fourth-quarter earnings were down sharply due to weak traffic early in the holiday selling season, Shoe Carnival Inc.
Trading Options During Earnings in Shoe Carnival Inc (NASDAQ:SCVL) - CML News
Shoe Carnival Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2016 Financial Results - Business Wire (press release)
Shoe Carnival: Bias Is To The Downside
Seeking Alpha - Sep 19, 2016
Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ:SCVL) has been on a tear of late, bucking the trend of poorly performing retail stocks that has dominated the sector in 2016.
Shoe Carnival's Margins Have Me Worried
Seeking Alpha - Jun 7, 2016
Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ:SCVL) is a rare retailer that has bucked the nasty downtrend we've seen of late from the group. The company's focus on an off-price model certainly helps and execution has been great.
A Huge Red Flag At Shoe Carnival
Seeking Alpha - Jun 18, 2016
A couple of weeks ago I wrote a piece on retailer Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ:SCVL) wherein I said that the company's margins had me worried.
Shoe Carnival to Report Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2016 Financial Results ...
Yahoo Finance - Mar 2, 2017
Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL), a leading retailer of moderately priced footwear and accessories, today announced fourth quarter 2016 earnings results will be released on Thursday, March 23, 2017 after the market close.
Shoe Carnival Inc. (SCVL) Moves Higher on Volume Spike for March 02 - Equities.com
Shoe Carnival shares fall on results, outlook
MarketWatch - Nov 28, 2016
Shoe Carnival Inc. SCVL, +2.46% on Monday reported quarterly results that missed expectations amid soft demand for seasonal items and cut its annual guidance.
Shoe Carnival's (SCVL) CEO Cliff Sifford on Q3 2016 Results - Earnings Call ... - Seeking Alpha
No Party At Shoe Carnival - Sorry Mr. Market, You've Got This One Wrong
Seeking Alpha - May 21, 2016
I was keeping an eye out for the financial results of some companies last night, and I was surprised to see Shoe Carnival's (NASDAQ:SCVL) share price falling by approximately 10% after-hours on what seemed to be some disappointing results. I wasn't ...
Shoe Carnival Misses Q1 Forecasts, Maintains Outlook - Footwear News
Shoe Carnival, Inc. | $SCVL) Stock | Shares Tumble On Poor Earnings & Revenue ... - TickerTV News (press release)
University Town Center properties lose sandwich shop, shoe store
Bradenton Herald - Mar 6, 2017
In Shoe Carnival Inc.'s third-quarter earnings call from the most recent fiscal year, President and CEO of Shoe Carnival Inc. Cliff Sifford said the company expected to open four stores but also close four stores in the fourth quarter. Sifford did not ...
Stock Returns: Shoe Carnival Inc (NASDAQ:SCVL) versus Zumiez Inc (NASDAQ:ZUMZ)
CML News - Mar 20, 2017
This is a snapshot to compare the stock returns for Shoe Carnival Inc (NASDAQ:SCVL) versus Zumiez Inc (NASDAQ:ZUMZ) . The stock return points we compare look at the last three-months, six-months and twelve-months.
Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL) PT Set at $26.00 by Jefferies Group LLC - Chaffey Breeze
Shoe Carnival Inc. - Receive News & Ratings Daily - BBNS
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for SCVL to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate SCVL's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$24.38 Current Price

$32.80 Growth Price (DCF)

Undervalued by 34.52%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: -10.25%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: 10.3%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$66.59 Stability Price (EPV)

Undervalued by 173.12%


Discount Rate: 15.0%

$11.78 NCA Price

Overvalued by 51.70%

$22.63 Book Price

Overvalued by 7.18%


Poor Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

SCVL has been unable to consistently generate sufficient returns from its investments in buildings, projects and equipment. This could be due to poor management, lack of an economic moat or the capital intensive nature of the business.

SCVL has only created $4.68 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
20122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 9.62M -127,000.00 7.65M 24.11M 30.65M
divided by
Invested Capital 240.20M 279.42M 310.94M 320.52M 324.35M
Cash ROIC 4.00% -0.05% 2.46% 7.52% 9.45%

Poor Return on Equity over the past 5 years

SCVL has shown an inability to deliver strong results for shareholders. This could be due to poor management, SCVL operating in a highly competitive industry, or having a weak business in general.

SCVL has only generated $8.80 of Earnings for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
20122013201420152016
Net Income 26.38M 29.34M 26.87M 25.53M 28.77M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 283.68M 292.37M 316.87M 331.20M 339.80M
Return on Equity 9.30% 10.03% 8.48% 7.71% 8.47%

Excellent Business Performance over the past 10 years

SCVL has been able to maintain profitability in good times and bad. This could mean SCVL has an extremely strong business or has the ability to scale down costs when needed. This should be a fairly resilient business, but double check for future sustainability by looking at its Risk Factors in the Annual Report.

SCVL has created positive free cash flow for 9 or more of the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 4.32M 1.45M 13.87M 18.10M 15.01M 9.62M -127,000.00 7.65M 24.11M 30.65M

Good Balance Sheet

SCVL's Total Assets double Total Liabilities. Its financial position is adequate. Remember to check Shareholders' Equity to see if it's stable or growing. It's one of the best measures of whether a company is creating value for shareholders.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Cash 34.84M 9.18M 24.82M 44.17M 60.19M 70.60M 45.76M 48.25M 61.38M 68.81M
Current Assets 237.14M 219.93M 222.86M 248.10M 281.35M 316.26M 328.02M 342.52M 359.13M 370.08M
Total Assets 311.16M 291.62M 293.07M 311.64M 345.15M 386.56M 407.20M 436.85M 465.02M 481.09M
Current Liabilities 84.93M 78.48M 71.92M 71.59M 70.68M 75.76M 82.02M 77.66M 83.12M 87.93M
Total Liabilities 101.21M 95.00M 88.44M 89.81M 90.80M 102.88M 114.83M 119.98M 133.82M 141.29M
Stockholder' Equity 209.95M 196.61M 204.64M 221.83M 254.34M 283.68M 292.37M 316.87M 331.20M 339.80M
Current Ratio 2.79 2.80 3.10 3.47 3.98 4.17 4.00 4.41 4.32 4.21
TL-to-TA 0.33 0.33 0.30 0.29 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.29 0.29

Consistent Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

SCVL has consistently retained profits. This may put SCVL in a strong position to invest for the future, by buying new machinery, investing in R&D or a number of other options. By effectively using these earnings, SCVL can greatly improve their long-term economic picture.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Retained Earnings 135.85M 148.55M 153.87M 169.03M 195.85M 222.24M 228.11M 250.07M 270.69M 294.31M
Retained Earnings Growth - 9.34% 3.58% 9.86% 15.87% 13.47% 2.64% 9.63% 8.24% 8.73%

Highly Competitive Industry over the past 10 years

It's likely that SCVL is in an industry with low barriers to entry, spurring high competition. If Gross Margins are at least satisfactory, it's likely SCVL invests heavily in R&D and Sales, General & Administrative expenses.

Only $2.77 of every $100 of Revenue have been profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Net Income 23.76M 12.81M 5.32M 15.17M 26.82M 26.38M 29.34M 26.87M 25.53M 28.77M
divided by
Revenue 681.66M 658.68M 647.57M 682.42M 739.19M 762.53M 855.00M 884.79M 940.16M 983.97M
Net Profit Margin 3.49% 1.94% 0.82% 2.22% 3.63% 3.46% 3.43% 3.04% 2.72% 2.92%

Inconsistent Gross Profit Margins over the past 10 years

SCVL has good gross profit margins, however inconsistency of these margins is a cause for concern. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

$36.07 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Gross Profit 198.77M 185.85M 174.33M 193.61M 221.54M 762.53M 257.48M 259.32M 273.68M 290.52M
divided by
Revenue 681.66M 658.68M 647.57M 682.42M 739.19M 762.53M 855.00M 884.79M 940.16M 983.97M
Gross Margin 29.16% 28.22% 26.92% 28.37% 29.97% 100.00% 30.11% 29.31% 29.11% 29.52%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

SCVL spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

122.23% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Capital Expenditure 24.95M 18.43M 18.20M 9.79M 14.41M 21.26M 25.98M 30.97M 33.54M 27.90M
divided by
Net Income 23.76M 12.81M 5.32M 15.17M 26.82M 26.38M 29.34M 26.87M 25.53M 28.77M
Capital Expenditure Ratio 105.00% 143.94% 342.24% 64.58% 53.73% 80.59% 88.54% 115.24% 131.40% 96.99%

No Dividend History over the past 10 years

SCVL has never distributed dividends or has recently suspended their dividend distribution.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Dividend Paid - - - - - - - - - -
divided by
Shares Outstanding 13.74M 13.16M 12.49M 12.66M 13.06M 13.13M 19.97M 19.95M 19.79M 19.43M
Dividend Paid Per Share - - - - - - - - - -
Price at Year End 14.49 9.50 20.41 26.97 25.70 19.67 29.03 26.04 23.27 26.98
Dividend Yield - - - - - - - - - -

History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

SCVL has some history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in January
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Shares Outstanding 13.74M 13.16M 12.49M 12.66M 13.06M 13.13M 19.97M 19.95M 19.79M 19.43M
Stock Bought Back - 4.45% 5.33% -1.33% -3.06% -0.53% -34.26% 0.13% 0.79% 1.87%
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