SIRI  Sirius Xm Radio Inc.

Exchange

NASDAQ

Sector

Consumer Services

Industry

Broadcasting

Market Cap.

24.05B

Vuru Grade

35.95/100

Current Price

$5.10
-0.03 (-0.58%)

Growth Price

$3.61
Overvalued by 29.12%

Stability Price

$0.07
Overvalued by 98.66%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 34
  • P/S 4.82
  • P/B 297.5
  • EPS 0.15
  • Cash ROIC 19.21%
  • Cash Ratio 0.08
  • Dividend 0.04 / 0.77%
  • Avg. Vol. 24.15M
  • Shares 4.72B
  • Market Cap. 24.05B

Company Description

Sirius XM Radio Inc. provides satellite radio services in the United States and Canada. It broadcasts a programming lineup of approximately 135 channels of commercial-free music, sports, news and information, talk and entertainment, traffic, and weather on subscription fee basis through two satellite radio systems in the United States; and holds an interest in the satellite radio services offered ... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

Sirius XM Facing Stiff Competition
Seeking Alpha - Mar 23, 2017
Sirius XM Holdings (NASDAQ:SIRI) purchased the Connected Vehicle Services unit ("CVS") for $530 million from Agero in late 2013.
1 Analyst Cools on Sirius XM Radio Stock - Motley Fool
Sirius XM Satellite Radio Downgraded On Less Favorable Risk-Reward - Investor's Business Daily
3 Reasons Why Sirius XM Buying Pandora May Not Happen
Motley Fool - Mar 7, 2017
Sirius XM has emerged as a steadily growing and consistently profitable media giant. Even Warren Buffett is now a shareholder. Buying into the financially challenged Pandora may send Sirius XM stock lower, and possibly by even more than Pandora's ...
Pandora Media Inc (P) Stock Falls on Liberty Media CEO Comments - Investorplace.com
Key Executive Calls Pandora 'Overvalued' - Barron's
Price Alert: Sirius XM Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:SIRI) Stock Nears Resistance ...
CML News - Mar 24, 2017
Price Alert: Sirius XM Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:SIRI) has now crossed into technical strength -- watch the technical oscillators for momentum gaps.
Jim Cramer Gives His Opinion On Sirius XM Holdings And Oracle
Benzinga - Mar 8, 2017
Jim Cramer said on CNBC's "Mad Money" that he is a buyer of Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI). He thinks that it is a great play on used and new cars.
Analytical Guide for Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI), Starbucks Corporation ... - The USA Commerce
Why Is Sirius XM (SIRI) Up 7.5% Since the Last Earnings Report?
Yahoo Finance - Mar 7, 2017
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Sirius XM Holdings Inc. SIRI. Shares have added about 7.5% in that time frame, outperforming the market.
Why Frontier Communications, Nike, and Sirius XM Slumped Today
Motley Fool - Mar 22, 2017
Following the stock market's most painful decline in over six months yesterday given concerns over Treasury rates and legislative roadblocks to the U.S.
2017 NCAA® Division I Men's Basketball Championship Coverage on SiriusXM
PR Newswire (press release) - Mar 9, 2017
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) is the world's largest radio company measured by revenue and has approximately 31.3 million subscribers.
Even Warren Buffett Can't Keep Sirius XM Bears Away
Motley Fool - Mar 16, 2017
Its low share price and the stock's volatile past -- this is a company that was on the brink of filing for bankruptcy in early 2009 -- are irresistible traits for speculators.
Driverless Cars May Be Bad News for Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)
Yahoo Finance - Mar 16, 2017
According to Wunderlich analyst Matthew Harrigan, driverless cars may be bad news for radio stocks such as Sirius XM Holdings ( SIRI).
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) Downgraded to Hold at Wunderlich - Chaffey Breeze
NASCAR and SiriusXM Extend Broadcasting Agreement Through 2022 for Every ...
PR Newswire (press release) - Mar 8, 2017
NEW YORK and DAYTONA BEACH, Fla., March 8, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- NASCAR and SiriusXM today announced a six-year renewal to extend their broadcasting and marketing agreement through 2022.
Stock Movers- DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ:DRYS), Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) - Wall Street Times (press release)
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for SIRI to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate SIRI's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$5.10 Current Price

$3.61 Growth Price (DCF)

Overvalued by 29.12%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: 22.95%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: 15.0%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$0.07 Stability Price (EPV)

Overvalued by 98.66%


Discount Rate: 15.0%

$-3.19 Book Price

Overvalued by 162.55%


Excellent Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

SIRI has efficiently invested its financial resources in buildings, projects, and equipment, resulting in strong returns. Annual Reports can be useful in identifying the cause of one-time events and future sustainability.

SIRI has created $19.21 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 709.47M 929.22M 1.13B 1.11B 1.51B
divided by
Invested Capital 6.22B 5.97B 5.91B 5.44B 5.12B
Cash ROIC 11.41% 15.56% 19.13% 20.40% 29.55%

Varying Return on Equity over the past 5 years

SIRI has generated strong profits with money shareholders have invested. However, there is a substantial variation in their Return on Equity from year-to-year. This may reflect management's inability to generate consistent returns or may be caused by one-time events. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

SIRI has generated $27.47 of Earnings for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Net Income 3.47B 377.22M 493.24M 509.72M 745.93M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 4.04B 2.75B 1.31B -166.49M -792.02M
Return on Equity 85.97% 13.74% 37.66% - -

Good Business Performance over the past 10 years

It's likely SIRI has been unable to maintain profitability in tough economic times, making it a somewhat cyclical business. The other possibility is SIRI has expended significant capital on items such as property, plant and equipment in specific years. Look for correlations.

SIRI has created positive free cash flow for 7 or 8 of the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow -214.03M -283.35M 185.32M 201.03M 406.20M 709.47M 929.22M 1.13B 1.11B 1.51B

Very Weak Balance Sheet

SIRI is in a poor financial position. This could be due to a slowdown in sales, indulging in debt-fuelled growth, or the nature of SIRI's business. If it is highly capital intensive (see Economic Moat), they likely have to outlay significant capital just to stay competitive. This habit often destroys more value than it creates.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Cash 439.29M 380.45M 383.49M 586.69M 773.99M 520.95M 134.81M 147.72M 111.84M 213.94M
Current Assets 678.86M 793.01M 859.78M 991.78M 1.28B 1.83B 1.42B 1.55B 561.89M 642.65M
Total Assets 1.69B 7.49B 7.26B 7.38B 7.50B 9.05B 8.84B 8.38B 8.05B 8.00B
Current Liabilities 1.07B 2.41B 2.08B 2.35B 2.25B 2.31B 2.74B 2.31B 2.50B 2.67B
Total Liabilities 2.49B 7.48B 7.23B 7.18B 6.79B 5.02B 6.10B 7.07B 8.21B 8.80B
Stockholder' Equity -792.74M 8.54M 37.43M 207.64M 704.15M 4.04B 2.75B 1.31B -166.49M -792.02M
Current Ratio 0.63 0.33 0.41 0.42 0.57 0.79 0.52 0.67 0.23 0.24
TL-to-TA 1.47 1.00 0.99 0.97 0.91 0.55 0.69 0.84 1.02 1.10

Low or No Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

SIRI has either been retaining a small amount of their earnings or has done so inconsistently. A lack of consistency could be due to SIRI operating at a loss or them having such a strong economic moat they feel comfortable spending profits on growth. Be wary of future prospects and if applicable, inspect the moat's sustainability.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Retained Earnings -4.40B -9.71B -10.24B -10.21B -9.78B -6.31B -5.93B -5.44B -4.93B -3.89B
Retained Earnings Growth - -120.78% -5.45% 0.29% 4.18% 35.49% 5.98% 8.31% 9.37% 21.09%

Erratic Net Profit Margins over the past 10 years

SIRI has had highly erratic net profit margins which are a great cause for concern. This company may operate in a highly volatile industry, or it may just have poor performance. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to understand if there is any reason to look past it.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Net Income -565.25M -5.31B -342.79M 43.06M 426.96M 3.47B 377.22M 493.24M 509.72M 745.93M
divided by
Revenue 922.07M 1.66B 2.47B 2.82B 3.01B 3.40B 3.80B 4.18B 4.57B 5.02B
Net Profit Margin -61.30% -319.31% -13.86% 1.53% 14.16% 102.08% 9.93% 11.80% 11.15% 14.87%

Varying Pricing Power over the past 10 years

SIRI has maintained substantial gross margins, suggesting that they have been able to set prices without consideration of the cost of goods sold. However, there is a substantial variation in their Gross Profit Margins from year-to-year, which indicates inconsistent performance. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

$63.86 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Gross Profit 372.11M 800.55M 2.04B 1.72B 2.96B 2.17B 2.40B 2.57B 2.73B 3.02B
divided by
Revenue 922.07M 1.66B 2.47B 2.82B 3.01B 3.40B 3.80B 4.18B 4.57B 5.02B
Gross Margin 40.36% 48.11% 82.31% 60.98% 98.23% 63.86% 63.29% 61.53% 59.67% 60.27%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

SIRI spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

126.30% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Capital Expenditure 65.26M 130.55M 248.51M 311.87M 137.43M 97.29M 173.62M 121.65M 134.89M 205.83M
divided by
Net Income -565.25M -5.31B -342.79M 43.06M 426.96M 3.47B 377.22M 493.24M 509.72M 745.93M
Capital Expenditure Ratio -11.55% -2.46% -72.50% 724.35% 32.19% 2.80% 46.03% 24.66% 26.46% 27.59%

No Dividend History over the past 10 years

SIRI has never distributed dividends or has recently suspended their dividend distribution.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Dividend Paid - - - - - - - - - -
divided by
Shares Outstanding 1.46B 2.17B 3.59B 6.39B 6.50B 6.87B 6.38B 5.86B 5.44B 4.96B
Dividend Paid Per Share - - - - - - - - - -
Price at Year End 3.06 0.12 0.58 1.63 1.82 2.89 3.51 3.52 4.07 4.45
Dividend Yield - - - - - - - - - -

History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

SIRI has some history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Shares Outstanding 1.46B 2.17B 3.59B 6.39B 6.50B 6.87B 6.38B 5.86B 5.44B 4.96B
Stock Bought Back - -32.57% -39.50% -43.89% -1.69% -5.43% 7.66% 8.92% 7.85% 9.48%
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