SIRI  Sirius Xm Radio Inc.

Exchange

NASDAQ

Sector

Consumer Services

Industry

Broadcasting

Market Cap.

2075.75B

Vuru Grade

35.95/100

Current Price

$4.94
+0.03 (+0.61%)

Growth Price

$3.43
Overvalued by 30.49%

Stability Price

$0.07
Overvalued by 98.68%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 32.93
  • P/S 411.21
  • P/B 297.5
  • EPS 0.15
  • Cash ROIC 19.21%
  • Cash Ratio 0.08
  • Dividend 0.04 / 0.81 %
  • Avg. Vol. 24.73M
  • Shares 4.96B
  • Market Cap. 2075.75B

Company Description

Sirius XM Radio Inc. provides satellite radio services in the United States and Canada. It broadcasts a programming lineup of approximately 135 channels of commercial-free music, sports, news and information, talk and entertainment, traffic, and weather on subscription fee basis through two satellite radio systems in the United States; and holds an interest in the satellite radio services offered ... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

3 Reasons Not to Short Sirius XM Stock in 2017
Motley Fool - Jan 24, 2017
There are a lot of people betting against Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) these days, even as the stock is hitting 10-year highs.
Analyst Outlook: Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) - Post Registrar
An Examination Of Sirius XM Guidance - Seeking Alpha
A Look At Some Of The Surprising Expense Changes At Sirius XM
Seeking Alpha - Feb 13, 2017
I have regularly looked at various expense items at Sirius XM Holdings (NASDAQ:SIRI) following the release of earnings. On several occasions, it has been to examine the line item labeled "Subscriber acquisition costs.
Top Performer of the day: Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) - FactsReporter
The Coastland Capital LLC Holds Position in Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) - DailyQuint
Howard Stern and More: Why Warren Buffett Bought Stock in Sirius XM
Fortune - Feb 16, 2017
Sirius XM hasn't turned into the media powerhouse that some people thought it would be a couple of decades ago. But it may still be a stock worth buying now, at least if you take Warren Buffett's word for it. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (brk.a ...
Warren Buffett Buys Apple, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines Co, Sells Deere ... - GuruFocus.com
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway buys stake in Monsanto - STLtoday.com
Sirius XM wins dismissal of Turtles copyright lawsuit in New York
Reuters - Feb 16, 2017
NEW YORK Sirius XM Holdings Inc on Thursday won the dismissal of a New York copyright lawsuit over the satellite radio company's playing of older songs by the 1960s band The Turtles and other artists, reducing the size of a related settlement between ...
Sirius XM wins another court victory in Turtles litigation - Seeking Alpha
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Q4 Earnings Rise 52%
Nasdaq - Feb 2, 2017
(RTTNews.com) - Sirius XM Holdings Inc. ( SIRI ) announced a profit for its fourth quarter that rose from last year. The company said its bottom line advanced to $204.63 million, or $0.04 per share.
Sirius XM Stock Has a Lot to Prove on Thursday - Motley Fool
SIRIUS XM (SIRI) Q4 Earnings In Line, Revenues Top February 02, 2017 - Zacks.com
Opinion: How you can get a better deal than Warren Buffett on Sirius XM shares
MarketWatch - Feb 15, 2017
The first thing you need to know is that Malone's company, Liberty Media , owns 67.1% of Sirius XM stock. That's 3.16 billion shares.
Should You Buy Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) Ahead of Earnings?
Yahoo Finance - Feb 1, 2017
Investors are always looking for stocks that are poised to beat at earnings season and Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) may be one such company.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc., Merck & Co., Inc. Post Solid Fourth Quarter Results
ValueWalk - Feb 2, 2017
Sirius XM and Merck released their latest earnings reports before opening bell this morning. Sirius XM reported $1.3 billion in revenue, which was in line with the consensus estimate.
Stanford Radio Launches on SiriusXM Starting February 11
PR Newswire (press release) - Feb 9, 2017
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) is the world's largest radio company measured by revenue and has approximately 31.3 million subscribers.
Iconic Actress, Model, and Best-Selling Author Brooke Shields to Host New ...
PR Newswire (press release) - Feb 9, 2017
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) is the world's largest radio company measured by revenue and has approximately 31.3 million subscribers.
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for SIRI to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate SIRI's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$4.94 Current Price

$3.43 Growth Price (DCF)

Overvalued by 30.49%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: 23.38%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: 15.0%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$0.07 Stability Price (EPV)

Overvalued by 98.68%


Discount Rate: 15.0%

$-3.26 Book Price

Overvalued by 165.92%


Excellent Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

SIRI has efficiently invested its financial resources in buildings, projects, and equipment, resulting in strong returns. Annual Reports can be useful in identifying the cause of one-time events and future sustainability.

SIRI has created $19.21 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 709.47M 929.22M 1.13B 1.11B 1.51B
divided by
Invested Capital 6.22B 5.97B 5.91B 5.44B 5.12B
Cash ROIC 11.41% 15.56% 19.13% 20.40% 29.55%

Varying Return on Equity over the past 5 years

SIRI has generated strong profits with money shareholders have invested. However, there is a substantial variation in their Return on Equity from year-to-year. This may reflect management's inability to generate consistent returns or may be caused by one-time events. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

SIRI has generated $27.47 of Earnings for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Net Income 3.47B 377.22M 493.24M 509.72M 745.93M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 4.04B 2.75B 1.31B -166.49M -792.02M
Return on Equity 85.97% 13.74% 37.66% - -

Good Business Performance over the past 10 years

It's likely SIRI has been unable to maintain profitability in tough economic times, making it a somewhat cyclical business. The other possibility is SIRI has expended significant capital on items such as property, plant and equipment in specific years. Look for correlations.

SIRI has created positive free cash flow for 7 or 8 of the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow -214.03M -283.35M 185.32M 201.03M 406.20M 709.47M 929.22M 1.13B 1.11B 1.51B

Very Weak Balance Sheet

SIRI is in a poor financial position. This could be due to a slowdown in sales, indulging in debt-fuelled growth, or the nature of SIRI's business. If it is highly capital intensive (see Economic Moat), they likely have to outlay significant capital just to stay competitive. This habit often destroys more value than it creates.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Cash 439.29M 380.45M 383.49M 586.69M 773.99M 520.95M 134.81M 147.72M 111.84M 213.94M
Current Assets 678.86M 793.01M 859.78M 991.78M 1.28B 1.83B 1.42B 1.55B 561.89M 642.65M
Total Assets 1.69B 7.49B 7.26B 7.38B 7.50B 9.05B 8.84B 8.38B 8.05B 8.00B
Current Liabilities 1.07B 2.41B 2.08B 2.35B 2.25B 2.31B 2.74B 2.31B 2.50B 2.67B
Total Liabilities 2.49B 7.48B 7.23B 7.18B 6.79B 5.02B 6.10B 7.07B 8.21B 8.80B
Stockholder' Equity -792.74M 8.54M 37.43M 207.64M 704.15M 4.04B 2.75B 1.31B -166.49M -792.02M
Current Ratio 0.63 0.33 0.41 0.42 0.57 0.79 0.52 0.67 0.23 0.24
TL-to-TA 1.47 1.00 0.99 0.97 0.91 0.55 0.69 0.84 1.02 1.10

Low or No Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

SIRI has either been retaining a small amount of their earnings or has done so inconsistently. A lack of consistency could be due to SIRI operating at a loss or them having such a strong economic moat they feel comfortable spending profits on growth. Be wary of future prospects and if applicable, inspect the moat's sustainability.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Retained Earnings -4.40B -9.71B -10.24B -10.21B -9.78B -6.31B -5.93B -5.44B -4.93B -3.89B
Retained Earnings Growth - -120.78% -5.45% 0.29% 4.18% 35.49% 5.98% 8.31% 9.37% 21.09%

Erratic Net Profit Margins over the past 10 years

SIRI has had highly erratic net profit margins which are a great cause for concern. This company may operate in a highly volatile industry, or it may just have poor performance. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to understand if there is any reason to look past it.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Net Income -565.25M -5.31B -342.79M 43.06M 426.96M 3.47B 377.22M 493.24M 509.72M 745.93M
divided by
Revenue 922.07M 1.66B 2.47B 2.82B 3.01B 3.40B 3.80B 4.18B 4.57B 5.02B
Net Profit Margin -61.30% -319.31% -13.86% 1.53% 14.16% 102.08% 9.93% 11.80% 11.15% 14.87%

Varying Pricing Power over the past 10 years

SIRI has maintained substantial gross margins, suggesting that they have been able to set prices without consideration of the cost of goods sold. However, there is a substantial variation in their Gross Profit Margins from year-to-year, which indicates inconsistent performance. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

$63.86 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Gross Profit 372.11M 800.55M 2.04B 1.72B 2.96B 2.17B 2.40B 2.57B 2.73B 3.02B
divided by
Revenue 922.07M 1.66B 2.47B 2.82B 3.01B 3.40B 3.80B 4.18B 4.57B 5.02B
Gross Margin 40.36% 48.11% 82.31% 60.98% 98.23% 63.86% 63.29% 61.53% 59.67% 60.27%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

SIRI spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

126.30% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Capital Expenditure 65.26M 130.55M 248.51M 311.87M 137.43M 97.29M 173.62M 121.65M 134.89M 205.83M
divided by
Net Income -565.25M -5.31B -342.79M 43.06M 426.96M 3.47B 377.22M 493.24M 509.72M 745.93M
Capital Expenditure Ratio -11.55% -2.46% -72.50% 724.35% 32.19% 2.80% 46.03% 24.66% 26.46% 27.59%

No Dividend History over the past 10 years

SIRI has never distributed dividends or has recently suspended their dividend distribution.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Dividend Paid - - - - - - - - - -
divided by
Shares Outstanding 1.46B 2.17B 3.59B 6.39B 6.50B 6.87B 6.38B 5.86B 5.44B 4.96B
Dividend Paid Per Share - - - - - - - - - -
Price at Year End 3.06 0.12 0.58 1.63 1.82 2.89 3.51 3.52 4.07 4.45
Dividend Yield - - - - - - - - - -

History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

SIRI has some history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Shares Outstanding 1.46B 2.17B 3.59B 6.39B 6.50B 6.87B 6.38B 5.86B 5.44B 4.96B
Stock Bought Back - -32.57% -39.50% -43.89% -1.69% -5.43% 7.66% 8.92% 7.85% 9.48%
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