TET.TO  Trilogy Energy Tr

Exchange

TSX

Sector

Energy

Industry

Market Cap.

746.31M

Vuru Grade

33.51/100

Current Price

$5.92
-0.17 (-2.79%)

Growth Price

$7.34
Undervalued by 24.02%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 17.61
  • P/S 4.33
  • P/B 2.01
  • EPS -0.75
  • Cash ROIC -5.33%
  • Cash Ratio -
  • Dividend 0.00 / 0.00 %
  • Avg. Vol. 193,994.00
  • Shares 126.07M
  • Market Cap. 746.31M

Company Description

Trilogy Energy Corp. acquires, develops, produces, and sells natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids in Canada. It holds interests in oil and natural gas properties, and related assets located in the Kaybob and Grande Prairie areas of Alberta. As of December 31, 2009, the company had total proved reserves of 49,667 thousand barrels of oil equivalent and proved plus probable reserves of 72,... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

Trilogy Energy Corp. (TET:CA) Declines 6.45% for February 22
Equities.com - Feb 22, 2017
It was a tough day for Trilogy Energy Corp. (TET:CA) as its stock fell 6.45% to finish the day at $6.09 a share on February 22.
BRIEF-Trilogy Energy Corp provides update on Q4 2016 operations
Reuters - Jan 17, 2017
BUCHAREST, Feb 4 Romania's prime minister said on Saturday he was scrapping a decree that would have shielded dozens of politicians from prosecution for corruption, bowing to one of the biggest protests since the fall of dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in ...
Trilogy Energy Corp
The Globe and Mail - Feb 12, 2010
Trilogy Energy Corp closed sharply lower Wednesday, dropping $0.42 or 6.45% to $6.09 and crossing below its 200-day moving average.
Trilogy Energy Corp. Announces Financial and Operating Results for the Six ...
Marketwired (press release) - Aug 4, 2016
Trilogy is a petroleum and natural gas-focused Canadian energy corporation that actively develops, produces and sells natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids.
Trilogy Energy Corp. Announces the Sale of Certain Duvernay Assets for US$85 ...
Marketwired (press release) - Nov 19, 2015
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwired - Nov. 19, 2015) - Trilogy Energy Corp. ("Trilogy") (TSX:TET) announced today that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell 11 net sections of its Duvernay mineral rights in the volatile oil window of its Kaybob ...
Trilogy Energy says oil emulsion spill in Alberta has covered 3 hectares
CBC.ca - Oct 13, 2016
The Canadian Press Posted: Oct 12, 2016 6:57 PM MT Last Updated: Oct 12, 2016 6:57 PM MT. Trilogy Energy Corp. is dealing with a crude oil pipeline leak at their Kaybob Montney Oil Development, located 15 kilometres outside the town of Fox Creek.
Cause and Volume of Pipeline Spill in Alberta Wetland Still Unknown Six Days In - DeSmog Canada
Trilogy Energy Corp. Announces Financial and Operating Results for the Nine ...
BOE Report (press release) - Nov 7, 2016
Trilogy is a petroleum and natural gas-focused Canadian energy corporation that actively develops, produces and sells natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids.
Crude oil pipeline leaks into wetland near Fox Creek
CBC.ca - Oct 8, 2016
The cause of a pipeline failure in northwestern Alberta remains under investigation. Calgary-based Triology Energy Corp. said it discovered the leak Thursday afternoon at its Kaybob Montney Oil project, located approximately 15 kilometres northeast of ...
Alberta's energy watchdog responds to crude oil pipeline leak in central Alberta - Globalnews.ca
The Trilogy Energy Corp (TET) Given Average Rating of “Hold” by Brokerages
DailyQuint - Feb 3, 2017
Trilogy Energy Corp (TSE:TET) has been assigned an average rating of “Hold” from the thirteen brokerages that are currently covering the company.
As oil price slump continues, companies get creative with staff schedules to ...
Financial Post - Aug 19, 2015
CALGARY - As oilpatch layoffs mount and companies struggle to retain staff, Trilogy Energy Corp. has been able to keep its staff and cut costs at the same time.
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for TET.TO to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate TET.TO's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$5.92 Current Price

$7.34 Growth Price (DCF)

Undervalued by 24.02%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: -12.45%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: 0.0%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$11.41 Book Price

Undervalued by 92.78%


Very Poor Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

TET.TO has failed to generate positive returns on its investments in buildings, projects and equipment. This could be due to poor management, lack of an economic moat or the capital intensive nature of the business.

TET.TO has lost $5.33 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
20112012201320142015
Free Cash Flow -65.83M -118.36M -108.23M -103.19M 36.03M
divided by
Invested Capital 1.13B 1.28B 1.41B 1.51B 1.21B
Cash ROIC -5.84% -9.27% -7.69% -6.82% 2.98%

Very Poor Return on Equity over the past 5 years

TET.TO has shown an inability to deliver results for shareholders. This could be due to poor management, TET.TO operating in a highly competitive industry, or having a weak business in general.

TET.TO has generated a $7.78 loss for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
20112012201320142015
Net Income 17.42M -12.13M 11.47M -61.01M -137.66M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 530.45M 486.40M 665.85M 572.14M 447.74M
Return on Equity 3.28% -2.49% 1.72% -10.66% -30.74%

Mediocre Business Performance over the past 10 years

TET.TO isn't a strong business and might be consistently attempting to fuel growth with debt or has trouble staying profitable. The lack of predictability in free cash flow should be concerning for the reliability of future earnings.

TET.TO has been unable to consistently create value for shareholders.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Free Cash Flow 88.69M 94.39M 99.21M 30.55M -3.36M -65.83M -118.36M -108.23M -103.19M 36.03M

Weak Balance Sheet

TET.TO's financial position is not ideal. The key is to check whether TET.TO is using debt to fuel its growth and the sustainability of that tendency. Highly capital intensive businesses (see Economic Moat) follow this route, which can deeply impact the future prospects of the business.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Cash - - - 2.80M - 134,000.00 - - - -
Current Assets 89.95M 52.26M 78.16M 54.15M 51.57M 55.31M 74.14M 73.22M 56.48M 45.55M
Total Assets 1.08B 928.19M 957.59M 893.19M 1.01B 1.26B 1.40B 1.55B 1.62B 1.27B
Current Liabilities 149.31M 76.18M 70.74M 63.78M 84.11M 133.01M 118.60M 138.74M 106.94M 56.17M
Total Liabilities 563.46M 546.19M 541.49M 458.58M 577.47M 729.92M 908.71M 880.88M 1.05B 818.75M
Stockholder' Equity 520.85M 382.01M 416.10M 434.61M 434.56M 530.45M 486.40M 665.85M 572.14M 447.74M
Current Ratio 0.60 0.69 1.10 0.85 0.61 0.42 0.63 0.53 0.53 0.81
TL-to-TA 0.52 0.59 0.57 0.51 0.57 0.58 0.65 0.57 0.65 0.65

Low or No Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

TET.TO has either been retaining a small amount of their earnings or has done so inconsistently. A lack of consistency could be due to TET.TO operating at a loss or them having such a strong economic moat they feel comfortable spending profits on growth. Be wary of future prospects and if applicable, inspect the moat's sustainability.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Retained Earnings -172.06M -327.65M -307.83M -401.40M -441.78M -368.94M -430.03M -468.75M -578.18M -715.84M
Retained Earnings Growth - -90.43% 6.05% -30.40% -10.06% 16.49% -16.56% -9.00% -23.34% -23.81%

Loss Making Entity over the past 10 years

TET.TO has been unable to maintain profitability. It's Costs of Sales have outstripped Revenue consistently. This is a huge red flag, unless the company has been investing heavily for the future. However, even that is dubious since accurately predicting the future of a company like that is extremely difficult.

$2.05 of every $100 of Revenue have been a loss, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Net Income 140.86M -49.75M 123.35M -33.36M 9.43M 17.42M -12.13M 11.47M -61.01M -137.66M
divided by
Revenue 444.21M 395.39M 465.30M 247.75M 290.84M 718.58M 466.49M 550.68M 625.55M 286.16M
Net Profit Margin 31.71% -12.58% 26.51% -13.47% 3.24% 2.42% -2.60% 2.08% -9.75% -48.11%

Varying Pricing Power over the past 10 years

TET.TO has maintained substantial gross margins, suggesting that they have been able to set prices without consideration of the cost of goods sold. However, there is a substantial variation in their Gross Profit Margins from year-to-year, which indicates inconsistent performance. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

$64.52 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Gross Profit 209.69M 196.28M 259.29M 125.71M 159.99M 718.58M 394.31M 460.42M 407.36M 153.32M
divided by
Revenue 444.21M 395.39M 465.30M 247.75M 290.84M 718.58M 466.49M 550.68M 625.55M 286.16M
Gross Margin 47.21% 49.64% 55.73% 50.74% 55.01% 100.00% 84.53% 83.61% 65.12% 53.58%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

TET.TO spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

1,420.89% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Capital Expenditure 171.17M 101.96M 144.32M 89.92M 166.09M 281.58M 353.71M 399.98M 447.19M 81.27M
divided by
Net Income 140.86M -49.75M 123.35M -33.36M 9.43M 17.42M -12.13M 11.47M -61.01M -137.66M
Capital Expenditure Ratio 121.51% -204.94% 116.99% -269.51% 1,760.95% 1,616.90% -2,915.28% 3,488.10% -732.97% -59.04%

Inconsistent Dividend History over the past 10 years

TET.TO has started distributing dividends in the past couple years or has recently suspended their dividend distribution. The reliability of future distributions is unclear.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Dividend Paid 262.00M 99.75M 53.96M 36.09M 48.08M 48.61M 48.94M 49.89M 52.80M -
divided by
Shares Outstanding 90.33M 93.05M 96.09M 100.06M 114.57M 118.87M 116.42M 118.96M 125.62M 126.05M
Dividend Paid Per Share 2.88 1.06 0.56 0.36 0.42 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42 -
Price at Year End 7.59 5.32 4.85 8.08 11.96 37.57 28.90 27.17 7.94 3.60
Dividend Yield 37.92% 19.99% 11.49% 4.43% 3.48% 1.08% 1.44% 1.53% 5.25% -

History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

TET.TO has some history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Shares Outstanding 90.33M 93.05M 96.09M 100.06M 114.57M 118.87M 116.42M 118.96M 125.62M 126.05M
Stock Bought Back - -2.92% -3.16% -3.97% -12.67% -3.61% 2.10% -2.14% -5.30% -0.34%
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