TET.TO  Trilogy Energy Tr

Exchange

TSX

Sector

Energy

Industry

Market Cap.

782.02M

Vuru Grade

15.50/100

Current Price

$6.20
-0.08 (-1.27%)

Growth Price

$1.52
Overvalued by 75.53%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 17.61
  • P/S 3.42
  • P/B 1.99
  • EPS -0.03
  • Cash ROIC -4.62%
  • Cash Ratio -
  • Dividend 0 / 0%
  • Avg. Vol. 240,322.00
  • Shares 126.13M
  • Market Cap. 782.02M

Company Description

Trilogy Energy Corp. acquires, develops, produces, and sells natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids in Canada. It holds interests in oil and natural gas properties, and related assets located in the Kaybob and Grande Prairie areas of Alberta. As of December 31, 2009, the company had total proved reserves of 49,667 thousand barrels of oil equivalent and proved plus probable reserves of 72,... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

Nationwide Fund Advisors Trimmed Biogen Common Stock (BIIB) Holding; Paramount ...
NormanObserver.com - 15 hours ago
Nationwide Fund Advisors decreased Biogen Inc Common Stock (BIIB) stake by 10.94% reported in 2017Q2 SEC filing. Nationwide Fund Advisors sold 26,524 shares as Biogen Inc Common Stock (BIIB)'s stock declined 13.45%.
Paramount and Trilogy Complete Merger
Canada NewsWire (press release) - Sep 12, 2017
Trilogy's name will be changed to Paramount Resources (TEC) Ltd. today. "The merger, along with the recently completed acquisition of Apache Canada Ltd.
$-0.09 EPS Expected for Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TET)
WeeklyHub - Oct 15, 2017
Investors wait Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TSE:TET) to report on November, 6. its quarterly earnings Wall Street analysts expect $-0.09 EPS, up $0.06 or 40.00 % from last year's $-0.15 same quarter earnings.
Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TET) Receives C$6.71 Consensus Price Target from ... - TrueBlueTribune
EPS for Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TET) Expected At $-0.09 - BZ Weekly
Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TET) EPS Estimated At $-0.09; New England ...
NormanObserver.com - Oct 20, 2017
Analysts expect Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TSE:TET) to report $-0.09 EPS on November, 6.They anticipate $0.06 EPS change or 40.00% from last quarter's $-0.15 EPS.
$-0.09 EPS Expected for Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TET); Shorts at Orasure ...
San Times - Oct 22, 2017
Analysts expect Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TSE:TET) to report $-0.09 EPS on November, 6.They anticipate $0.06 EPS change or 40.00% from last quarter's $-0.15 EPS.
Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TET) Analysts See $-0.09 EPS; Amalgamated Bank ...
UtahHerald.com - Oct 17, 2017
Analysts expect Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TSE:TET) to report $-0.09 EPS on November, 6.They anticipate $0.06 EPS change or 40.00% from last quarter's $-0.15 EPS.
EPS for Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TET) Expected At $-0.09; Last Week CoStar ...
UtahHerald.com - Oct 4, 2017
Analysts expect Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TSE:TET) to report $-0.09 EPS on November, 6.They anticipate $0.06 EPS change or 40.00% from last quarter's $-0.15 EPS.
Trilogy Energy Corp. Agrees to Merge with Paramount Resources Ltd.
Canada NewsWire (press release) - Jul 6, 2017
("Trilogy" or the "Company") (TSX - TET) announces that it has agreed to merge with Paramount Resources Ltd. ("Paramount"). Under the merger, Paramount would acquire all of the common shares and non-voting shares of Trilogy not already owned by ...
Paramount 'extremely opportunistic' as it buys Apache's Canadian subsidiary - Calgary Herald
Apache joins foreign exit from Canada's energy sector - The Globe and Mail
EPS for Blackrock Capital Investment (BKCC) Expected At $0.20; Paramount ...
UtahHerald.com - Oct 16, 2017
Scotia Capital maintained Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TSE:TET) on Wednesday, January 18 with “Sector Perform” rating. The firm earned “Sector Perform” rating on Wednesday, January 18 by RBC Capital Markets.
Analysts See $-0.09 EPS for Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TET); 1 Analysts ...
UtahHerald.com - Oct 10, 2017
Analysts expect Paramount Resources TEC Ltd (TSE:TET) to report $-0.09 EPS on November, 6.They anticipate $0.06 EPS change or 40.00% from last quarter's $-0.15 EPS.
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for TET.TO to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate TET.TO's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$6.20 Current Price

$1.52 Growth Price (DCF)

Overvalued by 75.53%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: 500.00%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: 0.0%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


TET.TO's most recent year of (normalized) free cash flow is negative. This is the base number for forward projections. This means that if you increase the growth rate, the amount of negative FCF grows, thereby decreasing the price.

Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$9.86 Book Price

Undervalued by 59.11%


Very Poor Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

TET.TO has failed to generate positive returns on its investments in buildings, projects and equipment. This could be due to poor management, lack of an economic moat or the capital intensive nature of the business.

TET.TO has lost $4.62 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow -118.36M -108.23M -103.19M 36.03M -26.57M
divided by
Invested Capital 1.28B 1.41B 1.51B 1.21B 1.16B
Cash ROIC -9.27% -7.69% -6.82% 2.98% -2.29%

Very Poor Return on Equity over the past 5 years

TET.TO has shown an inability to deliver results for shareholders. This could be due to poor management, TET.TO operating in a highly competitive industry, or having a weak business in general.

TET.TO has generated a $13.57 loss for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Net Income -12.13M 11.47M -61.01M -137.66M -93.40M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 486.40M 665.85M 572.14M 447.74M 363.90M
Return on Equity -2.49% 1.72% -10.66% -30.74% -25.67%

Poor Business Performance over the past 10 years

TET.TO's inability to produce positive free cash flow for the majority of the past 10 years is concerning. It should be a red flag, since this company does not have a track record of delivering results for shareholders. This could be due to poor management or the nature of its business.

TET.TO has been losing money for the majority of the past 10 years.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 94.39M 99.21M 30.55M -3.36M -65.83M -118.36M -108.23M -103.19M 36.03M -26.57M

Weak Balance Sheet

TET.TO's financial position is not ideal. The key is to check whether TET.TO is using debt to fuel its growth and the sustainability of that tendency. Highly capital intensive businesses (see Economic Moat) follow this route, which can deeply impact the future prospects of the business.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Cash - - 2.80M - 134,000.00 - - - - -
Current Assets 52.26M 78.16M 54.15M 51.57M 55.31M 74.14M 73.22M 56.48M 45.55M 39.18M
Total Assets 928.19M 957.59M 893.19M 1.01B 1.26B 1.40B 1.55B 1.62B 1.27B 1.22B
Current Liabilities 76.18M 70.74M 63.78M 84.11M 133.01M 118.60M 138.74M 106.94M 56.17M 65.92M
Total Liabilities 546.19M 541.49M 458.58M 577.47M 729.92M 908.71M 880.88M 1.05B 818.75M 860.82M
Stockholder' Equity 382.01M 416.10M 434.61M 434.56M 530.45M 486.40M 665.85M 572.14M 447.74M 363.90M
Current Ratio 0.69 1.10 0.85 0.61 0.42 0.63 0.53 0.53 0.81 0.59
TL-to-TA 0.59 0.57 0.51 0.57 0.58 0.65 0.57 0.65 0.65 0.70

Low or No Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

TET.TO has either been retaining a small amount of their earnings or has done so inconsistently. A lack of consistency could be due to TET.TO operating at a loss or them having such a strong economic moat they feel comfortable spending profits on growth. Be wary of future prospects and if applicable, inspect the moat's sustainability.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Retained Earnings -327.65M -307.83M -401.40M -441.78M -368.94M -430.03M -468.75M -578.18M -715.84M -809.24M
Retained Earnings Growth - 6.05% -30.40% -10.06% 16.49% -16.56% -9.00% -23.34% -23.81% -13.05%

Loss Making Entity over the past 10 years

TET.TO has been unable to maintain profitability. It's Costs of Sales have outstripped Revenue consistently. This is a huge red flag, unless the company has been investing heavily for the future. However, even that is dubious since accurately predicting the future of a company like that is extremely difficult.

$10.22 of every $100 of Revenue have been a loss, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Net Income -49.75M 123.35M -33.36M 9.43M 17.42M -12.13M 11.47M -61.01M -137.66M -93.40M
divided by
Revenue 395.39M 465.30M 247.75M 290.84M 718.58M 466.49M 550.68M 625.55M 286.16M 187.12M
Net Profit Margin -12.58% 26.51% -13.47% 3.24% 2.42% -2.60% 2.08% -9.75% -48.11% -49.92%

Varying Pricing Power over the past 10 years

TET.TO has maintained substantial gross margins, suggesting that they have been able to set prices without consideration of the cost of goods sold. However, there is a substantial variation in their Gross Profit Margins from year-to-year, which indicates inconsistent performance. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

$64.24 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Gross Profit 196.28M 259.29M 125.71M 159.99M 718.58M 394.31M 460.42M 407.36M 153.32M 83.24M
divided by
Revenue 395.39M 465.30M 247.75M 290.84M 718.58M 466.49M 550.68M 625.55M 286.16M 187.12M
Gross Margin 49.64% 55.73% 50.74% 55.01% 100.00% 84.53% 83.61% 65.12% 53.58% 44.49%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

TET.TO spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

1,745.74% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Capital Expenditure 101.96M 144.32M 89.92M 166.09M 281.58M 353.71M 399.98M 447.19M 81.27M 74.32M
divided by
Net Income -49.75M 123.35M -33.36M 9.43M 17.42M -12.13M 11.47M -61.01M -137.66M -93.40M
Capital Expenditure Ratio -204.94% 116.99% -269.51% 1,760.95% 1,616.90% -2,915.28% 3,488.10% -732.97% -59.04% -79.57%

Inconsistent Dividend History over the past 10 years

TET.TO has started distributing dividends in the past couple years or has recently suspended their dividend distribution. The reliability of future distributions is unclear.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Dividend Paid 99.75M 53.96M 36.09M 48.08M 48.61M 48.94M 49.89M 52.80M - -
divided by
Shares Outstanding 93.05M 96.09M 100.06M 114.57M 118.87M 116.42M 118.96M 125.62M 126.05M 126.07M
Dividend Paid Per Share 1.06 0.56 0.36 0.42 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42 - -
Price at Year End 5.32 4.85 8.08 11.96 37.57 28.90 27.17 7.94 3.60 7.55
Dividend Yield 19.99% 11.49% 4.43% 3.48% 1.08% 1.44% 1.53% 5.25% - -

History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

TET.TO has some history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in CAD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Shares Outstanding 93.05M 96.09M 100.06M 114.57M 118.87M 116.42M 118.96M 125.62M 126.05M 126.07M
Stock Bought Back - -3.16% -3.97% -12.67% -3.61% 2.10% -2.14% -5.30% -0.34% -0.02%
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