XPO  Express-1 Expedited Solutions...

Exchange

AMEX

Sector

Consumer Services

Industry

Transportation Services

Market Cap.

6.79B

Vuru Grade

4.50/100

Current Price

$60.75
+0.08 (+0.13%)

Growth Price

$32.33
Overvalued by 46.78%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 71.64
  • P/S 0.46
  • P/B 2.51
  • EPS 0.85
  • Cash ROIC -8.71%
  • Cash Ratio 0.14
  • Dividend 0 / 0%
  • Avg. Vol. 1.94M
  • Shares 111.77M
  • Market Cap. 6.79B

Company Description

Express-1 Expedited Solutions, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It operates through three units: Express-1, Concert Group Logistics, and Bounce Logistics. The Company's Express-1 unit offers expedited surface transportation services. It operates a fleet of independently owned vehicles, including cargo vans, str... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

XPO Logistics Could Be Big Winner From Sears-Amazon Deal
Benzinga - Jul 20, 2017
Rather, the real winner from Sears' announcement is XPO Logistics Inc (NYSE: XPO), a logistics company that handles items that are too big for United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE: UPS), such as a fridge or dryer.
What $8 Billion In Acquisitions Will Mean For XPO Logistics (NYSE:XPO) Stock ...
BNL Finance (press release) (registration) (blog) - 7 hours ago
XPO Logistics Inc (NYSE:XPO) CEO Bradley Jacobs has been talking to Bloomberg a lot here lately. Don't think for a second that's a coincidence.
Factors to Note Before Buying XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) - TopChronicle
stock's Buyers and Sellers Recap -: XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) - Hot Stocks Point
XPO Logistics Releases Preliminary Results for Second Quarter 2017
Nasdaq - Jul 17, 2017
XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) is a top ten global logistics provider of cutting-edge supply chain solutions to the most successful companies in the world.
XPO Logistics (XPO) Reports Prelim. Q2 Results - StreetInsider.com
XPO Logistics Sets Share Price For $665.5M Offering
Law360 (subscription) - Jul 20, 2017
Law360, New York (July 20, 2017, 6:13 PM EDT) -- XPO Logistics Inc., one of the world's 10 largest providers of transportation and logistics services, announced a $60.50 price per share for the 11 million shares of common stock in a registered offering ...
XPO Logistics Announces Pricing of $665.5 Million Public Offering of Common Stock
Nasdaq - Jul 20, 2017
GREENWICH, Conn. - July 20, 2017 - XPO Logistics, Inc. ("XPO" or the "Company") (NYSE:XPO) today announced the pricing of 11,000,000 shares of its common stock in a registered underwritten offering at $60.50 per share.
XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) Position Boosted by Clearbridge Investments LLC - BNB Daily (blog)
XPO Logistics Awarded Chilled Warehousing Contract for BrewDog Craft Beer
Nasdaq - Jul 10, 2017
NORTHAMPTON, UK - July 10, 2017 -XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO), a leading global provider of transport and logistics solutions, has signed a contract with craft beer pioneer BrewDog, one of the UK's fastest-growing food and drinks companies.
Taking a Look at the Data Behind XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO)
StockNewsJournal - Jul 19, 2017
XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) is an interesting player in the Services space, with a focus on Air Delivery & Freight Services.
Looking at the Big Picture for XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) - StockNewsGazette
Right After Earnings, The Intelligent Options Trade in XPO Logistics Inc
CML News - Jul 22, 2017
This is a simple option trade that starts two-days after XPO Logistics Inc (NYSE:XPO) earnings and lasts for the one month to follow, that has been a winner for 3 straight years.
XPO Logistics Expands Global Supply Chain Support for Sealed Air
Nasdaq - Jun 29, 2017
GREENWICH, Conn. - June 29, 2017 -XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO), a leading global provider of transportation and logistics solutions, announced an expansion of its global supply chain support for Sealed Air Corporation with the launch of an integrated ...
Why XPO Logistics Inc (NYSE:XPO) Stock Is Still A Buy & Hold Near $65! - BNL Finance (press release) (registration) (blog)
Najarian Brothers See Unusual Options Activity In XPO Logistics And US Steel
Benzinga - Jun 28, 2017
On CNBC's "Fast Money Halftime Report", Jon Najarian said that options traders were buying the August 65/70 call spread in XPO Logistics Inc (NYSE: XPO) on Wednesday. He sees more room on the upside in the name and he decided to follow the trade.
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for XPO to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate XPO's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$60.75 Current Price

$32.33 Growth Price (DCF)

Overvalued by 46.78%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: 36.18%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: 0.0%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$86.12 Book Price

Undervalued by 41.76%


Very Poor Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

XPO has failed to generate positive returns on its investments in buildings, projects and equipment. This could be due to poor management, lack of an economic moat or the capital intensive nature of the business.

XPO has lost $8.71 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow -31.28M -77.89M -65.90M -158.20M 142.00M
divided by
Invested Capital 111.89M 659.38M 1.74B 9.66B 8.59B
Cash ROIC -27.96% -11.81% -3.80% -1.64% 1.65%

Very Poor Return on Equity over the past 5 years

XPO has shown an inability to deliver results for shareholders. This could be due to poor management, XPO operating in a highly competitive industry, or having a weak business in general.

XPO has generated a $5.34 loss for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20122013201420152016
Net Income -20.34M -48.53M -63.60M -191.60M 84.50M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 245.06M 455.84M 1.66B 2.72B 2.70B
Return on Equity -8.30% -10.65% -3.84% -7.05% 3.13%

Mediocre Business Performance over the past 10 years

XPO isn't a strong business and might be consistently attempting to fuel growth with debt or has trouble staying profitable. The lack of predictability in free cash flow should be concerning for the reliability of future earnings.

XPO has been unable to consistently create value for shareholders.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Free Cash Flow 3.57M 5.94M -285,000.00 946,000.00 5.86M -31.28M -77.89M -65.90M -158.20M 142.00M

Weak Balance Sheet

XPO's financial position is not ideal. The key is to check whether XPO is using debt to fuel its growth and the sustainability of that tendency. Highly capital intensive businesses (see Economic Moat) follow this route, which can deeply impact the future prospects of the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Cash 800,000.00 1.11M 495,000.00 561,000.00 74.01M 252.29M 21.52M 644.10M 289.80M 373.40M
Current Assets 8.65M 14.82M 19.03M 27.57M 99.14M 320.93M 172.17M 1.23B 2.96B 3.07B
Total Assets 23.72M 41.68M 49.04M 56.67M 127.64M 413.21M 780.24M 2.76B 12.64B 11.70B
Current Liabilities 4.87M 10.40M 18.06M 15.25M 16.07M 49.03M 99.33M 381.10M 2.69B 2.73B
Total Liabilities 5.52M 15.16M 20.64M 22.66M 19.28M 168.15M 324.40M 1.11B 9.93B 9.00B
Stockholder' Equity 18.20M 26.53M 28.40M 34.01M 108.36M 245.06M 455.84M 1.66B 2.72B 2.70B
Current Ratio 1.78 1.43 1.05 1.81 6.17 6.55 1.73 3.24 1.10 1.13
TL-to-TA 0.23 0.36 0.42 0.40 0.15 0.41 0.42 0.40 0.79 0.77

Low or No Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

XPO has either been retaining a small amount of their earnings or has done so inconsistently. A lack of consistency could be due to XPO operating at a loss or them having such a strong economic moat they feel comfortable spending profits on growth. Be wary of future prospects and if applicable, inspect the moat's sustainability.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Retained Earnings -2.87M 286,000.00 1.99M 6.88M -36.95M -60.29M -111.79M -219.10M -465.00M -392.90M
Retained Earnings Growth - 109.97% 596.15% 245.50% -637.11% -63.17% -85.43% -95.99% -112.23% 15.51%

Loss Making Entity over the past 10 years

XPO has been unable to maintain profitability. It's Costs of Sales have outstripped Revenue consistently. This is a huge red flag, unless the company has been investing heavily for the future. However, even that is dubious since accurately predicting the future of a company like that is extremely difficult.

$0.66 of every $100 of Revenue have been a loss, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Net Income 2.17M 3.16M 1.71M 4.89M 759,000.00 -20.34M -48.53M -63.60M -191.60M 84.50M
divided by
Revenue 52.79M 109.46M 100.14M 157.99M 177.08M 278.59M 702.30M 2.36B 7.62B 14.62B
Net Profit Margin 4.11% 2.88% 1.70% 3.09% 0.43% -7.30% -6.91% -2.70% -2.51% 0.58%

Inconsistent Gross Profit Margins over the past 10 years

XPO has good gross profit margins, however inconsistency of these margins is a cause for concern. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

$25.20 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Gross Profit 12.88M 17.83M 16.74M 27.40M 177.08M 40.83M 123.51M 381.60M 1.08B 2.14B
divided by
Revenue 52.79M 109.46M 100.14M 157.99M 177.08M 278.59M 702.30M 2.36B 7.62B 14.62B
Gross Margin 24.40% 16.29% 16.72% 17.34% 100.00% 14.65% 17.59% 16.19% 14.23% 14.63%

High Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

XPO spends large amounts of capital buying new equipment or investing in new facilities to stay competitive. Over the long term, those costs may have to be fuelled by debt. Look at the growth of Shareholders' Equity to see if this strategy is having a positive or negative impact.

125.97% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Capital Expenditure 473,000.00 1.11M 186,000.00 811,000.00 754,000.00 6.98M 11.59M 44.60M 249.00M 483.40M
divided by
Net Income 2.17M 3.16M 1.71M 4.89M 759,000.00 -20.34M -48.53M -63.60M -191.60M 84.50M
Capital Expenditure Ratio 21.79% 35.14% 10.91% 16.59% 99.34% -34.32% -23.87% -70.13% -129.96% 572.07%

No Dividend History over the past 10 years

XPO has never distributed dividends or has recently suspended their dividend distribution.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Dividend Paid - - - - - - - - - -
divided by
Shares Outstanding 27.33M 31.76M 32.17M 33.12M 8.25M 15.69M 22.75M 53.60M 92.80M 122.80M
Dividend Paid Per Share - - - - - - - - - -
Price at Year End 4.60 3.80 5.00 9.48 12.35 16.77 26.28 40.93 26.37 43.16
Dividend Yield - - - - - - - - - -

History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

XPO has some history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Shares Outstanding 27.33M 31.76M 32.17M 33.12M 8.25M 15.69M 22.75M 53.60M 92.80M 122.80M
Stock Bought Back - -13.95% -1.28% -2.86% 301.57% -47.45% -31.02% -57.55% -42.24% -24.43%
Share your thoughts about XPO

Sign Up or Log In to start contributing!


Discussion

Nothing here yet. Be the first to post!