XPO  Express-1 Expedited Solutions...

Exchange

AMEX

Sector

Consumer Services

Industry

Transportation Services

Market Cap.

5.58B

Vuru Grade

10.94/100

Current Price

$50.40
+0.50 (+1.00%)

Growth Price

$18.31
Overvalued by 63.67%

Stability Price

$9.35
Overvalued by 81.44%

Company Metrics

  • P/E 18.76
  • P/S 0.39
  • P/B 2.06
  • EPS -0.24
  • Cash ROIC -5.92%
  • Cash Ratio 0.11
  • Dividend 0 / 0%
  • Avg. Vol. 1.23M
  • Shares 92.80M
  • Market Cap. 5.58B

Company Description

Express-1 Expedited Solutions, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It operates through three units: Express-1, Concert Group Logistics, and Bounce Logistics. The Company's Express-1 unit offers expedited surface transportation services. It operates a fleet of independently owned vehicles, including cargo vans, str... more


Download 10 Years of Financial Statements:
Income Statement   Balance Sheet   Cash Flow

News

XPO Logistics Finishes 2016 on a Record Note
Motley Fool - Feb 22, 2017
XPO Logistics' fourth-quarter results closed a strong year for the company. Revenue was up 10% to $3.68 billion, which was slightly faster than most investors had expected to see from XPO.
XPO Logistics Profit and Revenue Exceed Estimates - Wall Street Journal (subscription)
XPO Logistics accelerates earnings in 2016 - Business Record
XPO Logistics Honored by Navistar with Diamond Supplier Award
Yahoo Finance - Feb 17, 2017
February 17, 2017 - XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO), a leading global provider of transportation and logistics solutions, has been honored by Navistar International Corp.
XPO Logistics Inc. (XPO) Moves Lower on Volume Spike for February 17 - Equities.com
KeyCorp Comments on XPO Logistics, Inc.'s FY2016 Earnings (XPO) - The Cerbat Gem
Is XPO Logistics Inc (NYSE:XPO) Stock Prepping For A Big Breakout With ...
BNL Finance (press release) (registration) (blog) - Feb 13, 2017
Take a look at this XPO Logistics Inc (NYSE:XPO) chart: XPO stock climbed to 52-week highs in early December, just $0.14 shy of $50.
Analysts showing optimistic trends for: XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) - News Oracle
Analysts Set XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) Target Price at $51.90 - Sports Perspectives
How Does the Chart Look for XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) ?
The USA Commerce - Feb 24, 2017
We have gathered the technical data on XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO), and see some interesting trends in the stock's behavior of late.
XPO Logistics Inc. (XPO) Moves Lower on Volume Spike for February 20
Equities.com - Feb 20, 2017
XPO Logistics Inc. (XPO) traded on unusually high volume on Feb. 20, as the stock lost 0.73% to close at $49.22. On the day, XPO Logistics Inc. saw 1.99 million shares trade hands on 11,298 trades. Considering that the stock averages only a daily ...
XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) Upgraded at Zacks Investment Research - BNB Daily (blog)
XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) to Release Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - Chaffey Breeze
Trading Options During Earnings in XPO Logistics Inc (NYSE:XPO)
CML News - Feb 23, 2017
We're going to examine buying and selling out of the money strangles in XPO Logistics Inc and find out once and for all what the winning trades have been during earnings releases.
Today's Brokerage Rating: XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO), Covanta Holding ...
StockNewsJournal - Feb 22, 2017
ROI deals with the invested cash in the company and the return the investor realize on that money based on the net profit of the business.
Traders Alert: XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO), Leggett & Platt, Incorporated ...
TRA - Feb 23, 2017
XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) posted earnings of $0.24/Share in the previous quarter, as compared to earnings of $0.2/share estimated by analysts.
Revenue Approximations Analysis: XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO), Wynn Resorts ...
StockNewsJournal - Feb 20, 2017
ROI deals with the invested cash in the company and the return the investor realize on that money based on the net profit of the business.
Weekend Blitz: XPO Logistics (XPO), Under Armour (UA), Fannie Mae (FNMA) Stock ...
BNL Finance (press release) (registration) (blog) - Feb 18, 2017
In addition, we will be looking at stories related to XPO Logistics (NYSE:XPO), Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UA) (NYSE:UAA), Cliffs Natural Resources Inc (NYSE:CLF), ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:ACAD), and Federal National Mortgage Association ...
Growth Rate Assumed by Market

We did a reverse valuation to calculate the growth rate the market is assuming for XPO to be considered fairly valued at its current market price. It's useful to compare this to the growth rate we're assuming for the Growth Price.

Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate

This is the annual growth rate we've applied to calculate XPO's Free Cash Flow for the next 10 years. To calculate it, we looked at several time periods of the last 10 years. Feel free to adjust it, but we limit the initial growth rate to 20% and slow it down over the years. Otherwise, long-term sustainability issues come into play.

Discount Rate

The discount rate is the annual rate of return an investor requires to take the risk of investing in a single stock. To account for that risk, this should be above 8-10%, as this is the avg. annual rate of return for the S&P500 over the past 100 years.

$50.40 Current Price

$18.31 Growth Price (DCF)

Overvalued by 63.67%


Growth Rate Assumed by Market: 500.00%


Future Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: 0.0%


Discount Rate: 15.0%


XPO's most recent year of (normalized) free cash flow is negative. This is the base number for forward projections. This means that if you increase the growth rate, the amount of negative FCF grows, thereby decreasing the price.

Show Free Cash Flow numbers

$9.35 Stability Price (EPV)

Overvalued by 81.44%


Discount Rate: 15.0%

$130.63 Book Price

Undervalued by 159.19%


Very Poor Cash Return on Invested Capital over the past 5 years

XPO has failed to generate positive returns on its investments in buildings, projects and equipment. This could be due to poor management, lack of an economic moat or the capital intensive nature of the business.

XPO has lost $5.92 of cash for every $100 invested.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20112012201320142015
Free Cash Flow 5.86M -31.28M -77.89M -65.90M -158.20M
divided by
Invested Capital 37.56M 111.89M 659.38M 1.74B 9.66B
Cash ROIC 15.59% -27.96% -11.81% -3.80% -1.64%

Very Poor Return on Equity over the past 5 years

XPO has shown an inability to deliver results for shareholders. This could be due to poor management, XPO operating in a highly competitive industry, or having a weak business in general.

XPO has generated a $5.83 loss for every $100 of Shareholders' Equity.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
20112012201320142015
Net Income 759,000.00 -20.34M -48.53M -63.60M -191.60M
divided by
Stockholders' Equity 108.36M 245.06M 455.84M 1.66B 2.72B
Return on Equity 0.70% -8.30% -10.65% -3.84% -7.05%

Mediocre Business Performance over the past 10 years

XPO isn't a strong business and might be consistently attempting to fuel growth with debt or has trouble staying profitable. The lack of predictability in free cash flow should be concerning for the reliability of future earnings.

XPO has been unable to consistently create value for shareholders.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Free Cash Flow 2.68M 3.57M 5.94M -285,000.00 946,000.00 5.86M -31.28M -77.89M -65.90M -158.20M

Weak Balance Sheet

XPO's financial position is not ideal. The key is to check whether XPO is using debt to fuel its growth and the sustainability of that tendency. Highly capital intensive businesses (see Economic Moat) follow this route, which can deeply impact the future prospects of the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Cash 79,000.00 800,000.00 1.11M 495,000.00 561,000.00 74.01M 252.29M 21.52M 644.10M 289.80M
Current Assets 6.95M 8.65M 14.82M 19.03M 27.57M 99.14M 320.93M 172.17M 1.23B 2.96B
Total Assets 21.61M 23.72M 41.68M 49.04M 56.67M 127.64M 413.21M 780.24M 2.76B 12.64B
Current Liabilities 4.87M 4.87M 10.40M 18.06M 15.25M 16.07M 49.03M 99.33M 381.10M 2.69B
Total Liabilities 6.27M 5.52M 15.16M 20.64M 22.66M 19.28M 168.15M 324.40M 1.11B 9.93B
Stockholder' Equity 15.34M 18.20M 26.53M 28.40M 34.01M 108.36M 245.06M 455.84M 1.66B 2.72B
Current Ratio 1.43 1.78 1.43 1.05 1.81 6.17 6.55 1.73 3.24 1.10
TL-to-TA 0.29 0.23 0.36 0.42 0.40 0.15 0.41 0.42 0.40 0.79

Low or No Reinvestment of Profits over the past 10 years

XPO has either been retaining a small amount of their earnings or has done so inconsistently. A lack of consistency could be due to XPO operating at a loss or them having such a strong economic moat they feel comfortable spending profits on growth. Be wary of future prospects and if applicable, inspect the moat's sustainability.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Retained Earnings -5.04M -2.87M 286,000.00 1.99M 6.88M -36.95M -60.29M -111.79M -219.10M -465.00M
Retained Earnings Growth - 43.07% 109.97% 596.15% 245.50% -637.11% -63.17% -85.43% -95.99% -112.23%

Highly Competitive Industry over the past 10 years

It's likely that XPO is in an industry with low barriers to entry, spurring high competition. If Gross Margins are at least satisfactory, it's likely XPO invests heavily in R&D and Sales, General & Administrative expenses.

Only $0.21 of every $100 of Revenue have been profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Net Income 3.90M 2.17M 3.16M 1.71M 4.89M 759,000.00 -20.34M -48.53M -63.60M -191.60M
divided by
Revenue 42.19M 52.79M 109.46M 100.14M 157.99M 177.08M 278.59M 702.30M 2.36B 7.62B
Net Profit Margin 9.25% 4.11% 2.88% 1.70% 3.09% 0.43% -7.30% -6.91% -2.70% -2.51%

Inconsistent Gross Profit Margins over the past 10 years

XPO has good gross profit margins, however inconsistency of these margins is a cause for concern. Look at reasons for this inconsistency to determine the likelihood of future sustainability.

$26.30 of every $100 worth of sales have been Gross Profit, on average over the past 10 years.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Gross Profit 10.80M 12.88M 17.83M 16.74M 27.40M 177.08M 40.83M 123.51M 381.60M 1.08B
divided by
Revenue 42.19M 52.79M 109.46M 100.14M 157.99M 177.08M 278.59M 702.30M 2.36B 7.62B
Gross Margin 25.59% 24.40% 16.29% 16.72% 17.34% 100.00% 14.65% 17.59% 16.19% 14.23%

Medium Capital Intensity over the past 10 years

XPO has used a reasonable amount of their financial resources to invest in facilities and equipment required to produce its goods and services. This isn't perfect, but it shouldn't be an area of concern unless this number is strongly trending upwards.

34.73% of Profits are being spent on Capital Expenditures, like Property, Plant, & Equipment, required to run the business.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Capital Expenditure 961,000.00 473,000.00 1.11M 186,000.00 811,000.00 754,000.00 6.98M 11.59M 44.60M 249.00M
divided by
Net Income 3.90M 2.17M 3.16M 1.71M 4.89M 759,000.00 -20.34M -48.53M -63.60M -191.60M
Capital Expenditure Ratio 24.62% 21.79% 35.14% 10.91% 16.59% 99.34% -34.32% -23.87% -70.13% -129.96%

No Dividend History over the past 10 years

XPO has never distributed dividends or has recently suspended their dividend distribution.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Dividend Paid - - - - - - - - - -
divided by
Shares Outstanding 26.64M 27.33M 31.76M 32.17M 33.12M 8.25M 15.69M 22.75M 53.60M 92.80M
Dividend Paid Per Share - - - - - - - - - -
Price at Year End 5.08 4.60 3.80 5.00 9.48 12.35 16.77 26.28 40.93 26.37
Dividend Yield - - - - - - - - - -

History of Stock Buybacks over the past 10 years

XPO has some history of delivering increased value for shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. These have helped improve financial metrics and increase each shareholders' relative ownership stake in the company, due to fewer shares outstanding and holding the same number of shares.
Figures in USD. Fiscal year ends in December
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Shares Outstanding 26.64M 27.33M 31.76M 32.17M 33.12M 8.25M 15.69M 22.75M 53.60M 92.80M
Stock Bought Back - -2.51% -13.95% -1.28% -2.86% 301.57% -47.45% -31.02% -57.55% -42.24%
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